USDA Crop Report

News & commentary on the USDA Crop Report and Grain Futures markets including wheat, soybeans, corn & more

USDA Crop Report is a blog dedicated to bringing updates, news and commentary on the USDA Crop Report and the grain futures markets including wheat, corn, soybeans and more.

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07/18 , Corn and beans have a sell signal

Posted on 7/25/2014 1:36:39 PM by: Larry Baer, Market Strategist @ Zaner. 312-277-0112.

Call me for trade

 

 


CONTRACT LOW AND CLOSE FOR DEC. CORN.

Posted on 7/25/2014 7:34:25 AM by: Rick Alexander, VP, Trading @ Zaner. 312-277-0107.

YOUR HEAD IN THE SAND. IN MY OPINION WE HAVE A VERY GOOD HEDGING DEPARTMENT HEADED BY TED SIEFERT. WHY NOT TALK TO HIM OR ANY OF OUR OTHER HEDGING BROKERS. NO ONE WILL PRESSURE YOU AND WHAT HAVE YOU GOT TO LOSE? I'VE BEEN A LICENSED FUTURES BROKER FOR 41 YEARS AND TRUST NO ONE MORE THAN TED AND HIS GROUP!

Higher for oats for soybeans and soybean meal unchanged for soybean oil (dec.) while lower for rough rice, corn, Minneapolis, Kansas City and Chicago wheat.  Minneapolis (down 17 out of its last 23 sessions) and KC (down 18 out of 25) settled lower for a change the former its worst low and close since late January. The nearest resistance areas for all three begin around 640, 650 and 575 respectively. I continue to expect the wheat complex to fall further than their present areas to the extent whereby Chicago wheat should end up trading somewhere between four and five dollars although that could be a stretch. The December Minneapolis/ KC spreads settle slightly worse but has already broken out to the upside on July 7th. However,I'm still hoping for a retracement back to at least a -20 to start putting on positions. Then again, if I see a close over 'even money' I will then make adjustments in my approach. CALL ME FOR DETAILS!  Oats made its worst close since July 1st but settling higher this time in reversal type action. Also, oats have been approaching the lower end of a support area that goes from 335 down to the 324 area which means they're not in a good area to take short positions. Also the weekly chart shows them basically range bound between 320 and 350 since the middle of March. Rice settled down continuing to look very weak overall moving down in an orderly fashion since the beginning of May while possibly still in a bear flag or triangle at this time. Its nearest resistance is still above 1340 with little support below. New crop corn made another new CONTRACT LOW AND CLOSE down 13 out of its last 16 sessions which is becoming a broken record having trouble making a test of the 400 area so far. Don't forget around 75% of corn goes into feed down from 85% before ethanol was thrust upon us and the cattle herds are at 50-60 year lows not to mention what the hog virus did to the hog population. Get set for an even bigger drop in the bean complex like in the wheat and corn that have been falling overall since the latter part of 2012 even though exports have been good lately. Our hedge department feels the pickup in exports could be the result of hedging again hot, dry weather that usually takes place in August. Nov. beans and Dec. oilmade  settled higher this time but well off their sessions highs which is really bearish type action. DID YOU KNOW THAT THE BEANS ARE SO THICK IN SOME PARTS OF THE UNITED STATES THAT, IN SOME AREAS, IT'S CHEARPER TO CROP DUST BY PLANE THAN BY TRACTOR BECAUSE OF THE NUMBER OF BEANS THAT WOULD BE CRUSHED! I don't see much support below for the beans and oil but the Dec. meal does have strong looking support from 360 down to 340 which is still being tested. New crop oil needed to hold the 38 area but failed to do so last week. Meal/oil spreads turned back in May which was a tip off of what's been happening also but there is a possible W bottoming formation happening at this time. It's still too soon to tell if it will be completed and you should never assume a formation will happen until it actually happens all the way. SELL SIGNALS FOR MINEAPOLIS, KANSAS CITY AND CHICAGO WHEAT ALONG WITH CORN, ROUGH RICE SOYBEANS, SOYBEAN MEAL AND SOYBEAN OIL. CALL FOR DETAILS.  For additional charts, quotes, news, commentary & more sign-up for a FREE 30-day trial to Market head.Com

 

 

 

  

  

 

 

 

 


07/18 , Corn and beans have a sell signal

Posted on 7/24/2014 1:44:21 PM by: Larry Baer, Market Strategist @ Zaner. 312-277-0112.

Call me for trade

 

 


Look at those Grain Exports!

Posted on 7/24/2014 1:27:07 PM by: Ted Seifried, VP, Ag Hedging @ Zaner. 312-277-0113.

For almost two weeks now we have been seeing export sales announcements coming through almost every morning.  However, this grain export business has not done much to support markets so far but it could be a positive sign for things to come.  The question now is - will this increase in export business continue or was this just a short term deal?
 
For the last two weeks it has seemed like every morning it was not a question of if but a question of when I would get an email from the USDA FAS announcing new export sales.  Global buyer buyers have been buying corn and especially soybeans after the recent, sharp drop in prices.  This came to a head on this weeks export sales report which confirmed very strong sales of corn and soybeans.  Corn sales of almost 45 million bushels came in almost double the high end of trade guesses and soybean sales of over 90 million bushels were almost twice the market expectations as well.  This strong export sales business is a bright spot in an otherwise dreary market climate lately.
 
The question now is whether this strong up tick in export sales will continue or if this was just a flash in the pan.  First of all, prices may need to stay low to continue to encourage sales.  Secondly, there is the possibility that global buyers are looking at the recent break in prices as an opportunity to make purchases on a percentage of their needs before key August weather just in case there were a problem.  Some of these purchases may be a weather hedge, if you will, for the remainder of the growing season.  So, it will be very interesting to see what happens in the next few weeks.
 
At this point we are ahead of the export sales pace from last year at this time.  If this pace keeps up the USDA could be too low on their current export forecast.  And, if prices do continue to go lower exports could get even stronger.  The bottom line is that it is positive to see global grain buyers step up to the plate at current prices rather then wait for the market to continue to come down.
 
For now weather will likely continue to be the key market mover.  As many analysts are now throwing around super sized yield forecasts the markets focus is squarely on production and how big crops could be.  In my experience things are rarely as good as they seem and almost never as bad as they seem. 
 
Feel free to give me a call or shoot me an email if you would like to talk about your marketing plan, the markets, weather, or just to visit.   
 
December Corn Daily chart:

November Soybeans Daily chart:

December Wheat Daily chart:

All this means that speculators should be looking for opportunities and producers need to look to lock up some prices. Give me a call for some ideas. In particular, producers looking to hedge all or a portion of their production may be rather interested in some of the options / options-futures strategies that I am currently using.

In my mind there has to be a balance. Neither technical nor fundamental analysis alone is enough to be consistent. Please give me a call for a trade recommendation, and we can put together a trade strategy tailored to your needs. Be safe!

Ted Seifried (312) 277-0113 or tseifried@zaner.com

Additional charts, studies, and more of my commentary can be found at: http://markethead.com/2.0/free_trial.asp?ap=tseifrie


What Happens Next in the Ukraine?

Posted on 7/24/2014 12:17:43 PM by: Ted Seifried, VP, Ag Hedging @ Zaner. 312-277-0113.

Today, news broke that a Malaysian Airlines 777 was shot down over eastern Ukraine where pro-Russian separatists and the Ukrainian government have been doing battle.  295 lives were lost, 23 of them were US Citizens.  While I certainly do not proclaim to be an expert on Russia or the Ukraine, and bullets and missiles are a long way away from corn kernels and bean pods I find myself trying to predict what comes next and how it affects the grains markets. 
 
What exactly happened is not very clear.  In the aftermath of this tragedy both the pro-Russian separatists and the Ukrainian government are trading blame for the incident.  What we do know is that a plane full of innocent people was shot out of the sky at 33,000 feet (just over 6 miles high) by a BUK launched surface to air missile near the Ukrainian/Russian boarder.  What is clear is that this situation has come to a head and that when things happen of this nature there will be a reaction.  The question is what and by whom.  What happens next will be of utmost importance, not only for grains markets but for the geopolitical climate.
 
This has an impact on grain markets in a few ways, but the most obvious way is Russian and Ukrainian grain production and exports.  Combined Russia and the Ukraine account for 74 million metric tons or 10.5% of the world's wheat production and 28.5 million metric tons or 19% of global wheat exports according the USDA's current estimates for 2014/2015.  The Ukraine also accounts for 27 MMT or about 3% of the world's corn production and 16 MMT or 14% of global exports.  The concern is that if this situation continues to escalate that this export capacity would be significantly reduced or lost and the rest of the world would have to look elsewhere to fill these needs.  Some of this wheat business and a good portion of the corn business could fall to the US and cut into ending stocks for next year.  So, how likely is this?
 
Again, I am not an expert in these matters but it would seem to me that there are two possible outcomes going forward.  The first, and I believe less likely would be that the US steps in to help the Ukraine fight the pro-Russian separatists and Russia steps in to support the rebels.  This could mean the resumption of the cold war and could mean that Ukrainian and Russian grains are lost to the rest of the world.  The other possibility would be for this thing to be solved politically and peacefully (at least from this point forward).  This could happen in a few ways, but the most logical way would be for Russia to intervene at this point and lead the charge to disband the pro-Russian rebels.
 
To this point Russian President Vladimir Putin has politically positioned Russia to look like he is a peace keeper in this engagement.  The annexing of Crimea was justified by a majority population of ethnic Russians and was said to be the best solution to keeping peace.  But, now that innocent international blood has been spilled this is an opportunity for Russia and actually do what they say they are trying to do - make peace.  The ball is in Putin's court to step in and stop the pro-Russian separatists from committing any more violence, or at the very least to allow it to happen.  If this is not the case things could escalate.
 
My gut feeling is that this situation will be politically resolved and that it will end up having very little if any impact on the global grain market.  However, I am not sure if this is really the path of least resistance or it is just what I hope to see happen.  Either way this situation has reached its climax and what happens now may have a significant impact on grains markets as well as the geopolitical climate.
 
Feel free to give me a call or shoot me an email if you would like to talk about your marketing plan, the markets, weather, or just to visit.   
 
December Corn Daily chart:

November Soybeans Daily chart:

December Wheat Daily chart:

All this means that speculators should be looking for opportunities and producers need to look to lock up some prices. Give me a call for some ideas. In particular, producers looking to hedge all or a portion of their production may be rather interested in some of the options / options-futures strategies that I am currently using.

In my mind there has to be a balance. Neither technical nor fundamental analysis alone is enough to be consistent. Please give me a call for a trade recommendation, and we can put together a trade strategy tailored to your needs. Be safe!

Ted Seifried (312) 277-0113 or tseifried@zaner.com

Additional charts, studies, and more of my commentary can be found at: http://markethead.com/2.0/free_trial.asp?ap=tseifrie


NO UPDATE TODAY

Posted on 7/24/2014 7:22:21 AM by: Rick Alexander, VP, Trading @ Zaner. 312-277-0107.

YOUR HEAD IN THE SAND. IN MY OPINION WE HAVE A VERY GOOD HEDGING DEPARTMENT HEADED BY TED SIEFERT. WHY NOT TALK TO HIM OR ANY OF OUR OTHER HEDGING BROKERS. NO ONE WILL PRESSURE YOU AND WHAT HAVE YOU GOT TO LOSE? I'VE BEEN A LICENSED FUTURES BROKER FOR 41 YEARS AND TRUST NO ONE MORE THAN TED AND HIS GROUP!

Lower for soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, rough rice, corn, Minneapolis, Kansas City and Chicago wheat.  Minneapolis (down 16 out of its last 22 sessions) and KC (down 17 out of 24) made their worst lows and closes since February once again.The nearest resistance areas for all three begin around 640, 650 and 575 respectively. I continue to expect the wheat complex to fall further than their present areas to the extent whereby Chicago wheat should end up trading somewhere between four and five dollars leaning towards the lower price. The December Minneapolis/ KC spreads made a new CONTRACT HIGH PRICE since breaking out to the upside on July 7th. See the first  chart below. However,I'm still waiting, hopefully, for a retracement back to at least a negative twenty to start putting on positions because if its risk after from its present level. Then again, if I see a close over 'even money' I will then make adjustments in my approach. CALL ME FOR DETAILS!  Oats made its lowest close since July 1st falling for its fourth consecutive session.following through from Thursday's reversal type action. Also, oats are now app\roaching the lower end of a support area that goes from 335 down to the 324 area, Then again, a weekly chart shows them basically range bound between 320 and 350 since the middle of March. Let's say goodbye to my buy signal and just trade off the weekly price range mentioned above. Rice (Sept.) had a strong close today but continues to look very weak overall moving down in an orderly fashion since the beginning of May while possibly in a bear flag or triangle at this time.. Its nearest resistance is still above 1340 with little support below. New crop corn made another new CONTRACT LOW AND CLOSE down 13 out of its last 16 sessions which is becoming a broken record having trouble making a test of the 400 area so far. Don't forget around 75% of corn goes into feed down from 85% before ethanol was thrust upon us and the cattle herds are at 50-60 year lows not to mention what the hog virus did to the hog population. Get set for an even bigger drop in the bean complex like in the wheat and corn that have been falling overall since the latter part of 2012. Nov. beans and Dec. oilmade  new CONTRACT LOWS AND CLOSES while meal had its lowest close since January. DID YOU KNOW THAT THE BEANS ARE SO THICK IN SOME PARTS OF THE UNITED STATES THAT, IN SOME AREAS, IT'S CHEARPER TO CROP DUST BY PLANE THAN BY TRACTOR BECAUSE OF THE NUMBER OF BEANS THAT WOULD BE CRUSHED! I don't see much support below for the beans and oil but the Dec. meal does have strong looking support from 360 down to 340 which is now being tested. New crop oil needed to hold the 38 area but failed to do so last week. Meal/oil spreads turned back in May which was a tip off of what's been happening also. SELL SIGNALS FOR MINEAPOLIS, KANSAS CITY AND CHICAGO WHEAT ALONG WITH CORN, ROUGH RICE SOYBEANS, SOYBEAN MEAL AND SOYBEAN OIL. CALL FOR DETAILS.  For additional charts, quotes, news, commentary & more sign-up for a FREE 30-day trial to Market head.Com

 

 

  

  

 


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