USDA Crop Report

News & commentary on the USDA Crop Report and Grain Futures markets including wheat, soybeans, corn & more

USDA Crop Report is a blog dedicated to bringing updates, news and commentary on the USDA Crop Report and the grain futures markets including wheat, corn, soybeans and more.

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Futures, options and forex trading is speculative in nature and involves substantial risk of loss.  These recommendations are a solicitation for entering into derivatives transactions.  All known news and events have already been factored into the price of the underlying derivatives discussed.  From time to time persons affiliated with Zaner, or its associated companies, may have positions in recommended and other derivatives.


BASICALLY HOLDING GAINS WHILE BEAN CRUSH MARGINS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE

Posted on 4/27/2016 6:32:43 AM by: Rick Alexander, VP, Trading @ Zaner. 312-277-0107.

 

WE HAVE A VERY GOOD HEDGING DEPARTMENT HEADED BY TED SEIFRIED. WHY NOT TALK TO HIM OR ANY OF OUR OTHER HEDGING BROKERS. NO ONE WILL PRESSURE YOU AND WHAT HAVE YOU GOT TO LOSE?  I'VE BEEN A LICENSED FUTURES BROKER FOR OVER 41 YEARS AND TRUST NO ONE MORE THAN TED AND HIS GROUP.

 

 

Higher closes for Minneapolis, Kansas City and Chicago wheat along with corn, rough rice soybeans, soybean meal and soybean oil while lower for oats. Dry conditions in Oklahoma, Kansas and Texas along with parts of Canada, the Black Sea and Australia while wet conditions in other parts of Canada along with Brazil have helped to sustain the grains overall at this time. We saw Minneapolis (best high since 10/4/15), KC (12/18/15) and Chicago (11/9/15) spike up last Thursday and close down in reversal type action that lasted a couple of days before the wheat complex rebounded partway back so far. After the smoke cleared we see below that Minneapolis continues to gain over KC with the former making higher highs and lows since the beginning of March while the latter has been basically been range bound between 450 and 500 since the middle of December. I managed to buy July 500 wheat puts and dump them out at a decent profit after holding them just a couple of days. Like I mentioned before,I still don't trust the wheat complex and hope to take advantage of any sharp rallies in the same manner until it doesn't work anymore. I realized the grade of the wheat stocks isn't that good but the overall world supply is pretty high. Meanwhile, I want to see the July Minneapolis wheat contract settle over 580 and KC over 500 again to feel better about the rally continuing. KC is now in a decent resistance area and should continue to lag behind Minneapolis keeping me on the sidelines. Chicago looks better than KC but not as strong as Minneapolis which gives me reason for concern for how much higher the wheat complex will go. I trade off of technicals for timing but we all know it's the fundamentals that dictate long term trends in the end. Oats also made their best high since 12/30/15 before  reversing last week and, while not giving me a buy signal, has caused me to stand aside for now. I want to see a close over 215 to possibly give a buy signal. It does show signs of bottoming type action in my opinion. On the other hand rice has been rallying since late February  and is nearing its 1980 resistance area. I will continue to keep my sell signal for the long term but I may have 'missed the boat' on this one. Corn gave me a buy signal a week ago Monday but I still want to see a close over four dollars. I'm having trouble with this rally after its last very bearish grain report but as I like to say' it is what it is' and the MARKET IS NEVER WRONG. Obviously, corn has been helped by the beans and meal and, let's face it, the corn and bean complex generally go in tandem. The last time corn closed over four dollars was 10/15/16. The bean complex had received a nice boost from the dry weather in Brazil (mostly affecting corn though) and wet weather in Argentina (beans) along with a rising Brazilian real and a falling dollar. Remember, most bull and bear markets are lead by the meal due to the crush breakdown and the margins have been gradually improving. Beans had their highest high last week since1/2/16 and the meal since early August last year. Oil remains basically stagnant with the meal/oil spreads working in favor of the meal. BUY SIGNALS FOR MINNEAPOLIS AND CHICAGO WHEAT, SOYBEANS. SOYBEAN MEAL, SOYBEAN OIL AND CORN. SELL SIGNAL FOR ROUGH RICE.  For additional charts, quotes, news, commentary & more, sign up for a FREE 30 -day trial to markethead.com.

 

 


BASICALLY HOLDING GAINS WHILE BEAN CRUSH MARGINS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE

Posted on 4/27/2016 6:32:32 AM by: Rick Alexander, VP, Trading @ Zaner. 312-277-0107.

 

WE HAVE A VERY GOOD HEDGING DEPARTMENT HEADED BY TED SEIFRIED. WHY NOT TALK TO HIM OR ANY OF OUR OTHER HEDGING BROKERS. NO ONE WILL PRESSURE YOU AND WHAT HAVE YOU GOT TO LOSE?  I'VE BEEN A LICENSED FUTURES BROKER FOR OVER 41 YEARS AND TRUST NO ONE MORE THAN TED AND HIS GROUP.

 

 

Higher closes for Minneapolis, Kansas City and Chicago wheat along with corn, rough rice soybeans, soybean meal and soybean oil while lower for oats. Dry conditions in Oklahoma, Kansas and Texas along with parts of Canada, the Black Sea and Australia while wet conditions in other parts of Canada along with Brazil have helped to sustain the grains overall at this time. We saw Minneapolis (best high since 10/4/15), KC (12/18/15) and Chicago (11/9/15) spike up last Thursday and close down in reversal type action that lasted a couple of days before the wheat complex rebounded partway back so far. After the smoke cleared we see below that Minneapolis continues to gain over KC with the former making higher highs and lows since the beginning of March while the latter has been basically been range bound between 450 and 500 since the middle of December. I managed to buy July 500 wheat puts and dump them out at a decent profit after holding them just a couple of days. Like I mentioned before,I still don't trust the wheat complex and hope to take advantage of any sharp rallies in the same manner until it doesn't work anymore. I realized the grade of the wheat stocks isn't that good but the overall world supply is pretty high. Meanwhile, I want to see the July Minneapolis wheat contract settle over 580 and KC over 500 again to feel better about the rally continuing. KC is now in a decent resistance area and should continue to lag behind Minneapolis keeping me on the sidelines. Chicago looks better than KC but not as strong as Minneapolis which gives me reason for concern for how much higher the wheat complex will go. I trade off of technicals for timing but we all know it's the fundamentals that dictate long term trends in the end. Oats also made their best high since 12/30/15 before  reversing last week and, while not giving me a buy signal, has caused me to stand aside for now. I want to see a close over 215 to possibly give a buy signal. It does show signs of bottoming type action in my opinion. On the other hand rice has been rallying since late February  and is nearing its 1980 resistance area. I will continue to keep my sell signal for the long term but I may have 'missed the boat' on this one. Corn gave me a buy signal a week ago Monday but I still want to see a close over four dollars. I'm having trouble with this rally after its last very bearish grain report but as I like to say' it is what it is' and the MARKET IS NEVER WRONG. Obviously, corn has been helped by the beans and meal and, let's face it, the corn and bean complex generally go in tandem. The last time corn closed over four dollars was 10/15/16. The bean complex had received a nice boost from the dry weather in Brazil (mostly affecting corn though) and wet weather in Argentina (beans) along with a rising Brazilian real and a falling dollar. Remember, most bull and bear markets are lead by the meal due to the crush breakdown and the margins have been gradually improving. Beans had their highest high last week since1/2/16 and the meal since early August last year. Oil remains basically stagnant with the meal/oil spreads working in favor of the meal. BUY SIGNALS FOR MINNEAPOLIS AND CHICAGO WHEAT, SOYBEANS. SOYBEAN MEAL, SOYBEAN OIL AND CORN. SELL SIGNAL FOR ROUGH RICE.  For additional charts, quotes, news, commentary & more, sign up for a FREE 30 -day trial to markethead.com.

 

 


BASICALLY HOLDING GAINS WHILE BEAN CRUSH MARGINS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE

Posted on 4/27/2016 6:32:24 AM by: Rick Alexander, VP, Trading @ Zaner. 312-277-0107.

 

WE HAVE A VERY GOOD HEDGING DEPARTMENT HEADED BY TED SEIFRIED. WHY NOT TALK TO HIM OR ANY OF OUR OTHER HEDGING BROKERS. NO ONE WILL PRESSURE YOU AND WHAT HAVE YOU GOT TO LOSE?  I'VE BEEN A LICENSED FUTURES BROKER FOR OVER 41 YEARS AND TRUST NO ONE MORE THAN TED AND HIS GROUP.

 

 

Higher closes for Minneapolis, Kansas City and Chicago wheat along with corn, rough rice soybeans, soybean meal and soybean oil while lower for oats. Dry conditions in Oklahoma, Kansas and Texas along with parts of Canada, the Black Sea and Australia while wet conditions in other parts of Canada along with Brazil have helped to sustain the grains overall at this time. We saw Minneapolis (best high since 10/4/15), KC (12/18/15) and Chicago (11/9/15) spike up last Thursday and close down in reversal type action that lasted a couple of days before the wheat complex rebounded partway back so far. After the smoke cleared we see below that Minneapolis continues to gain over KC with the former making higher highs and lows since the beginning of March while the latter has been basically been range bound between 450 and 500 since the middle of December. I managed to buy July 500 wheat puts and dump them out at a decent profit after holding them just a couple of days. Like I mentioned before,I still don't trust the wheat complex and hope to take advantage of any sharp rallies in the same manner until it doesn't work anymore. I realized the grade of the wheat stocks isn't that good but the overall world supply is pretty high. Meanwhile, I want to see the July Minneapolis wheat contract settle over 580 and KC over 500 again to feel better about the rally continuing. KC is now in a decent resistance area and should continue to lag behind Minneapolis keeping me on the sidelines. Chicago looks better than KC but not as strong as Minneapolis which gives me reason for concern for how much higher the wheat complex will go. I trade off of technicals for timing but we all know it's the fundamentals that dictate long term trends in the end. Oats also made their best high since 12/30/15 before  reversing last week and, while not giving me a buy signal, has caused me to stand aside for now. I want to see a close over 215 to possibly give a buy signal. It does show signs of bottoming type action in my opinion. On the other hand rice has been rallying since late February  and is nearing its 1980 resistance area. I will continue to keep my sell signal for the long term but I may have 'missed the boat' on this one. Corn gave me a buy signal a week ago Monday but I still want to see a close over four dollars. I'm having trouble with this rally after its last very bearish grain report but as I like to say' it is what it is' and the MARKET IS NEVER WRONG. Obviously, corn has been helped by the beans and meal and, let's face it, the corn and bean complex generally go in tandem. The last time corn closed over four dollars was 10/15/16. The bean complex had received a nice boost from the dry weather in Brazil (mostly affecting corn though) and wet weather in Argentina (beans) along with a rising Brazilian real and a falling dollar. Remember, most bull and bear markets are lead by the meal due to the crush breakdown and the margins have been gradually improving. Beans had their highest high last week since1/2/16 and the meal since early August last year. Oil remains basically stagnant with the meal/oil spreads working in favor of the meal. BUY SIGNALS FOR MINNEAPOLIS AND CHICAGO WHEAT, SOYBEANS. SOYBEAN MEAL, SOYBEAN OIL AND CORN. SELL SIGNAL FOR ROUGH RICE.  For additional charts, quotes, news, commentary & more, sign up for a FREE 30 -day trial to markethead.com.

 

 


How Much Corn has been Planted?

Posted on 4/26/2016 4:40:31 PM by: Ted Seifried, VP, Ag Hedging @ Zaner. 312-277-0113.

On Tuesday the November soybean contract set a new high close for the year.  Just weeks ago most analysts, producers, traders and end users thought this kind of move was impossible given the current fundamentals of the market.  So what has changed and will it last?

First off, this unprecedented move in soybeans and soybean meal might be difficult to comprehend for many, but for the American producer this is a opportunity to do something that just a few weeks ago was seen as an impossibility - lock in positive profit margins for the year.  This opportunity should not be taken lightly and should be taken advantage of one way or another.  We have specific strategies we are using, feel free to contact us to hear more about them.

Some will say that the lower US$ is driving soybeans higher, or the lower Brazilian Real, or inflation concerns.  While I do believe that currency exchange is helping US exports on the global market and I do feel that commodities as a whole have recently gotten a boost from inflation concerns I do not think this can account for such a strong rally.  Weather concerns in South America are another reason given for the strength.  Brazil has gotten hot and dry for their second season crops and Argentina has been getting terrific downpours on maturing crops also causing damage.  This potential loss of production will have an impact on a global balance sheet, but not likely a large enough one to spur this kind of strength.

I feel that more likely the strength in soybeans is coming from a tightness in soybean meal stocks.  With low crush margins soybean crushers slowed down the soybean crush in the last few months and soybean meal demand (both domestically and abroad) remained strong.  So, this may just be soybean meal correcting the crush margins in order to spur the crush into higher levels.  If this is the case this problem could be eased in a matter of weeks because soybean crushers have the soybeans to crush and they were bought at lower prices so profit margins are much better than the have been.

Regardless of the cause the opportunity is still there.  We are still looking at a 400 million bushel carry over in the US.  We still have a very comfortable global balance sheet.  We are still intending to plant 82+ million acres of soybeans this growing season.  So, while this rally in soybeans may not be over just yet producers need to take a close look at their bottom line and lock in profitable profit margins when the opportunity is there.  And, if we are worried about giving up opportunity for higher prices especially for the growing season there are strategies to replace that opportunity.  Our best advice for this marketing year is - Use cash sales to manage risk, use the board to manage opportunity.

Give us a call if you would like more info on the strategies we are using or if you would like to set up an account to put a plan in action.  Ted Seifried - (312) 277-0113.  Also, feel free to give me a call or shoot me an email if you would like to talk about your marketing plan, the markets, weather, or just to visit.  Follow me on twitter @thetedspread if you like. 

May Corn Daily chart:

 

May Soybeans Daily chart:

May Wheat Daily chart:

 

Producers looking to hedge all or a portion of their production may be rather interested in some of the options / options-futures strategies that I am currently using.

In my mind there has to be a balance. Neither technical nor fundamental analysis alone is enough to be consistent. Please give me a call for a trade recommendation, and we can put together a trade strategy tailored to your needs. Be safe!

Ted Seifried (312) 277-0113 or tseifried@zaner.com

Additional charts, studies, and more of my commentary can be found at: http://markethead.com/2.0/free_trial.asp?ap=tseifrie


How Much Corn has been Planted?

Posted on 4/26/2016 4:06:34 PM by: Ted Seifried, VP, Ag Hedging @ Zaner. 312-277-0113.

 

Give us a call if you would like more info on the strategies we are using or if you would like to set up an account to put a plan in action.  Ted Seifried - (312) 277-0113.  Also, feel free to give me a call or shoot me an email if you would like to talk about your marketing plan, the markets, weather, or just to visit.  Follow me on twitter @thetedspread if you like. 

May Corn Daily chart:

 

May Soybeans Daily chart:

May Wheat Daily chart:

 

Producers looking to hedge all or a portion of their production may be rather interested in some of the options / options-futures strategies that I am currently using.

In my mind there has to be a balance. Neither technical nor fundamental analysis alone is enough to be consistent. Please give me a call for a trade recommendation, and we can put together a trade strategy tailored to your needs. Be safe!

Ted Seifried (312) 277-0113 or tseifried@zaner.com

Additional charts, studies, and more of my commentary can be found at: http://markethead.com/2.0/free_trial.asp?ap=tseifrie


Options Play: Trend Still Up In Corn, Soybeans

Posted on 4/26/2016 6:38:45 AM by: Matt McKinney, Market Strategist @ Zaner. 312-277-0115.

Direct-312-277-0115, http://www.mmckinneyfutures.com/

TRADING COMMODITY FUTURES AND OPTIONS INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS AND MAY NOT BE SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER WHETHER TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR CIRCUMSTANCES, KNOWLEDGE AND FINANCIAL RESOURCES.

 

 

 

Options Play: Trend Still Up In Corn, Soybeans

After an impressive bull move and subsequent profit taking, the trend in the row crops is still up.

 

 

Fundamentally, expectations for possible record yields this year for the Corn and the Soybeans could be priced in. How often are expectations like these met in the markets? I would expect some erratic weather patterns to have an impact on prices as we transition from El Nina to La Nina this year.

So as we move into the completion of the planting season weather will be in the forefront. I would expect the Soybeans and the Corn to bounce on certain weather patterns and concerns. This could make for fun and exciting markets this spring. Unlike the past winter and fall that had Corn and Soybeans range bound and predictable.

 

 Technically, I have added my favorite technical indicators to the daily charts below. I have coined them the "10/20/50/BB Trend Finder". They are the 10 (red line), 20 (green line), and the 50 (blue line) day Simple Moving Averages or SMA's. I have also added Bollinger Bands or BB's (light blue shaded area) and Candlesticks (the red and green bars with the candle stick wicks, and on this daily chart each bar represents one day of trading). These few technical indicators can tell me many, many different characteristics about the market at a quick glance so I have them saved on my charts in MARKETHEAD, so they can populate on any chart I choose at the click of a mouse.

The Soybean market has gone parabolic and is in what I refer to as a PRINCIPAL TREND higher which is the strongest form of an upward trend that my technicals can show me. This PRINCIPAL TREND up occurs when the 10 day SMA crosses up and over the 20 day SMA and the market trades above the 10 day SMA using it as support. 

 

 

Technically, after the Corn market went parabolic or basically straight up, it then pulled backed to the support of the 20 day SMA. as long as the support of the 20 day SMA holds and continues to point on an upward angle I will have the Corn market in an upward trend.

 

 

 

I figured all this out by putting my "10/20/50/BB Trend Finder" on the charts above and applying these indicators to the charts at the click of a mouse which I found at: http://www.markethead.com/2.0/free_trial.asp?ap=mmckinne , which is a web application that we have developed for our clients called MARKETHEAD where I get about 70-80% of all my research from. That means I get both technical and fundamental research from this web app and I am a veteran series 3 Broker of 17 years. So if I'm using it then maybe my readers should check it out. Yes? 

 

Options Play:

One strategy that could be used here is to buy limited risk calls or bull call spreads and in a three to one ratio a put. I have unofficially named this strategy a "long straddle" or a "ratio spread"

For exact details on this strategy, months, expiration dates, strike prices, and number of positions feel free to contact me at 312-277-0115 or mmckinney@zaner.com .

 

CME Options On Futures: The Basics: http://www.zaner.com/offers/?page=9&ap=mmckinne

 

FREE QUOTE- "We should not look back unless it is to derive useful lessons from past errors, and for the purpose of profiting by dearly bought experience." -George Washington

 

 

 

 

FUTURES, OPTIONS AND FOREX TRADING IS SPECULATIVE IN NATURE AND INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS. THESE RECOMMENDATIONS ARE A SOLICITATION FOR ENTERING INTO DERIVATIVES TRANSACTIONS. ALL KNOWN NEWS AND EVENTS HAVE ALREADY BEEN FACTORED INTO THE PRICE OF THE UNDERLYING DERIVATIVES DISCUSSED. FROM TIME TO TIME PERSONS AFFILIATED WITH ZANER, OR ITS ASSOCIATED COMPANIES, MAY HAVE POSITIONS IN RECOMMENDED AND OTHER DERIVATIVES.

 

FOR CUSTOMERS TRADING OPTIONS, THESE FUTURES CHARTS ARE PRESENTED FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY. THEY ARE INTENDED TO SHOW HOW INVESTING IN OPTIONS CAN DEPEND ON THE UNDERDLYING FUTURES PRICES; SPECIFICALLY, WHETHER OR NOT AN OPTION PURCHASER IS BUYING AN IN-THE-MONEY, AT-THE-MONEY, OR OUT-OF-THE MONEY OPTION. FURTHERMORE, THE PURCHASER WILL BE ABLE TO DETERMINE WHETHER OR NOT TO EXERCISE HIS RIGHT ON AN OPTION DEPENDING ON HOW THE OPTION'S STICKE PRICE COMPARES TO THE UNDERLYING FUTURE'S PRICE. THE FUTURES CHARTS ARE NOT INTENDED TO IMPLY THAT OPTION PRICES MOVE IN TANDEM WITH FUTURES PRICES. IN FACT OPTIONS PRICES MAY ONLY MOVE A LITTLE.

THE LIMITED RISK CHARACTERISTIC OF OPTIONS REFERS TO LONG OPTIONS ONLY AND REFERS TO THE AMOUNT OF THE LOSS, WHICH IS DEFINED AS THE PREMIUM PAID ON THE OPTION(S) PLUS FEES.


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