News & commentary on the USDA Crop Report and Grain Futures markets including wheat, soybeans, corn & more
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USDA Crop Report is a blog dedicated to bringing updates, news and commentary on the USDA Crop Report and the grain futures markets including wheat, corn, soybeans and more.
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Futures, options and forex trading is speculative in nature and involves substantial risk of loss. These recommendations are a solicitation for entering into derivatives transactions. All known news and events have already been factored into the price of the underlying derivatives discussed. From time to time persons affiliated with Zaner, or its associated companies, may have positions in recommended and other derivatives.
Posted on 1/29/2015 1:40:52 PM by: Larry Baer, Market Strategist @ Zaner. 312-277-0112.
Call me for trade
Posted on 1/29/2015 1:24:19 PM by: Ted Seifried, VP, Ag Hedging @ Zaner. 312-277-0113.
March Soybeans Daily chart:
March Wheat Daily chart:
All this means that speculators should be looking for opportunities and producers need to look to lock up some prices. Give me a call for some ideas. In particular, producers looking to hedge all or a portion of their production may be rather interested in some of the options / options-futures strategies that I am currently using.
In my mind there has to be a balance. Neither technical nor fundamental analysis alone is enough to be consistent. Please give me a call for a trade recommendation, and we can put together a trade strategy tailored to your needs. Be safe!
Ted Seifried (312) 277-0113 or firstname.lastname@example.org
Additional charts, studies, and more of my commentary can be found at: http://markethead.com/2.0/free_trial.asp?ap=tseifrie
Posted on 1/29/2015 12:18:35 PM by: Ted Seifried, VP, Ag Hedging @ Zaner. 312-277-0113.
Posted on 1/27/2015 4:14:05 PM by: Ted Seifried, VP, Ag Hedging @ Zaner. 312-277-0113.
Posted on 1/25/2015 9:45:13 AM by: Matt McKinney, Market Strategist @ Zaner. 312-277-0115.
TRADING COMMODITY FUTURES AND OPTIONS INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS AND MAY NOT BE SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER WHETHER TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR CIRCUMSTANCES, KNOWLEDGE AND FINANCIAL RESOURCES.
Options play: How long will this soybean slide last?
There are many different factors that have contributed to the slide in soybean prices over the last week.
Fundamentally, some of the factors that have had an impact on the slide in soybean prices from a high of about $10.61/bushel on January 12 all the way down to a low of $9.67/bushel on January 23 are too many to mention here, but I will cover a few. I'm hearing from conversations with traders and farmers that the South American crop that will come to harvest in the coming weeks should be a big time bumper crop, if not a record crop. Although I'm reading that our number one buyer the Chinese have had some very good overall economic signs over the last week which could lead to very solid demand price action is showing me that might not be enough to push prices up. In fact according to morning Hightower commentary on Friday, "China's Shanghai Composite was also higher and advanced into the highest level in five years, with an added source of support coming on a slight beat in Chinese manufacturing activity in January." That's great news for their economy, but will it actually translate into solid bean purchases by China? As of now prices are telling me not.
Technically, I have added my favorite technical indicators to the gold chart below. They are the 9 (red line), 20 (green line), and the 50 (blue line) period simple moving averages or SMA's. I have also added Bollinger Bands or BB's (the light blue shaded area) and Candlesticks (the red and green bars). On the daily chart below each bar or Candlestick represents one day of trading. These few technical indicators tell me 6-12 different characteristics about the market at a quick glance. I have them saved on my charts in MARKETHEAD so they can populate any chart, any market, and any time frame at the click of a mouse.
Also from a technical standpoint this is a break out to the downside on the chart below in my view. We also have what I have coined a "SUPER-TREND" down on this March soybean chart. In order to achieve this what we need to have happen first is a cross of the 9 period SMA (red line) down and under the 20 period SMA (green line) as both indicators point lower on a fairly sharp angle while the market itself trades below the 9. Now we have the 9 period SMA as our first area of resistance, then the 20, then the 50 SMA's and finally the top line of the BB's.
March daily soybean chart
Some good plays I think could be to buy puts or bear put spreads with a call for a hedge or "insurance" in case the trend changes to up dramatically. I would recommend this in a 3 to 1 ratio as always. Puts or bear put spreads have a limited risk. Another play could be to sell deep out of the money calls to collect premium. This tsrategy requires a well-funded account and a high risk tolerance. But as they say, no risk no reward.
For exact details on strategies, months, expiration dates, strike prices, and number of positions feel free to contact me at 312-277-0115 or email@example.com .
It is also important to note that I am not married to a market, but to trends. So I make recommendations with options on futures and commodities like the energies, metals, currencies, softs, financials, and more. So whether you are a hedger or a speculator I believe I can help by putting together strategies and recommendations present them to you, then as always leave the final decision in your hands. We work as a team. Also recommending when to get in and when to get out while watching the trade every step of the way as I keep you updated personally. May all the best trades be yours and mine.
FREE QUOTE- "Diamonds are made under pressure." -Peter Marshall
FUTURES, OPTIONS AND FOREX TRADING IS SPECULATIVE IN NATURE AND INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS. THESE RECOMMENDATIONS ARE A SOLICITATION FOR ENTERING INTO DERIVATIVES TRANSACTIONS. ALL KNOWN NEWS AND EVENTS HAVE ALREADY BEEN FACTORED INTO THE PRICE OF THE UNDERLYING DERIVATIVES DISCUSSED. FROM TIME TO TIME PERSONS AFFILIATED WITH ZANER, OR ITS ASSOCIATED COMPANIES, MAY HAVE POSITIONS IN RECOMMENDED AND OTHER DERIVATIVES.
FOR CUSTOMERS TRADING OPTIONS, THESE FUTURES CHARTS ARE PRESENTED FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY. THEY ARE INTENDED TO SHOW HOW INVESTING IN OPTIONS CAN DEPEND ON THE UNDERDLYING FUTURES PRICES; SPECIFICALLY, WHETHER OR NOT AN OPTION PURCHASER IS BUYING AN IN-THE-MONEY, AT-THE-MONEY, OR OUT-OF-THE MONEY OPTION. FURTHERMORE, THE PURCHASER WILL BE ABLE TO DETERMINE WHETHER OR NOT TO EXERCISE HIS RIGHT ON AN OPTION DEPENDING ON HOW THE OPTION'S STICKE PRICE COMPARES TO THE UNDERLYING FUTURE'S PRICE. THE FUTURES CHARTS ARE NOT INTENDED TO IMPLY THAT OPTION PRICES MOVE IN TANDEM WITH FUTURES PRICES. IN FACT OPTIONS PRICES MAY ONLY MOVE A LITTLE.
THE LIMITED RISK CHARACTERISTIC OF OPTIONS REFERS TO LONG OPTIONS ONLY AND REFERS TO THE AMOUNT OF THE LOSS, WHICH IS DEFINED AS THE PREMIUM PAID ON THE OPTION(S) PLUS FEES.
Posted on 1/21/2015 6:42:56 AM by: Rick Alexander, VP, Trading @ Zaner. 312-277-0107.
WE HAVE A VERY GOOD HEDGING DEPARTMENT HEADED BY TED SEIFRIED. WHY NOT TALK TO HIM OR ANY OF OUR OTHER HEDGING BROKERS. NO ONE WILL PRESSURE YOU AND WHAT HAVE YOU GOT TO LOSE? I'VE BEEN A LICENSED FUTURES BROKER FOR 41 YEARS AND TRUST NO ONE MORE THAN TED AND HIS GROUP.
Higher for Minneapolis, Kansas City and Chicago wheat along with corn, oats and soybean meal while lower for rough rice, soybeans and soybean oil. The wheat complex has staged a small rally over the last few days but remains very bearish overall. Minneapolis has looked better than KC as evidenced buy the spread between the two. Also, at least so far, all three have held critical support areas with Minneapolis needing to hold the 550 area, KC 570 and Chicago 520 or else it could be a long 2015 as I mentioned last week. Oats have also rallied but still look very bearish with little resistance up to the 300 area in the way of falling further. Although rice had reversal type action last Thursday and little resistance up to 1160, it also remains in a strong downtrend overall. Corn closed higher while continuing to hold a strong looking support area so far. Holding 375 and 350 look important to me. The beans and oil settled down while the oil higher. The beans and meal have heavy resistance overhead and look to head lower in my opinion. The meal's weakness is what concerns me the most. Oil has been in a sideways to higher pattern since November while having upward momentum since the beginning of December. Beans not holding the ten dollar area is not good also. Still, I'm going to remove my sell signal for the oil and stand aside at this time. SELL SIGNALS FOR MINNEAPOLIS, KANSAS CITY AND CHICAGO WHEAT ALONG WITH CORN, ROUGH RICE, SOYBEANS AND SOYBEAN MEAL. For additional charts, quotes, news, commentary & more, sign up for a FREE 30 day trial to markethead.com.
Markets: Grains, CME Group (CME), Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT), Corn (C, ZC), Wheat (W, ZW), Red Wheat (KW, KE), Soybeans (S, ZS), Soymeal (SM, ZM), Soyoil (SO, ZL), Oats (O, ZO), Rough Rice (RR, ZR), Grain Price.
Futures, options and off-exchange retail foreign currency ("forex") trading is speculative in nature and involves substantial risk of loss. All known news and events have already been factored into the price of the underlying commodities discussed. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.