USDA Crop Report

News & commentary on the USDA Crop Report and Grain Futures markets including wheat, soybeans, corn & more

USDA Crop Report is a blog dedicated to bringing updates, news and commentary on the USDA Crop Report and the grain futures markets including wheat, corn, soybeans and more.

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Corn & Beans have buy signal 04/08

Posted on 4/16/2014 1:30:36 PM by: Larry Baer, Market Strategist @ Zaner. 312-277-0112.

Call me for trade

 

 


NO UPDATE TODAY

Posted on 4/16/2014 6:24:11 AM by: Rick Alexander, VP, Trading @ Zaner. 312-277-0107.

 

Higher for rough rice while lower for corn, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, Minneapolis, Kansas City and Chicago wheat. I keep stating that we all know the world supply of wheat is large but that hadn't stopped the wheat, until three weeks ago, from moving higher in a 45 degree angle since the beginning of February. Because of its rally this year, the wheat complex has liitle support nearby but decent resistance around forty cents above all three. Now the wheat complex is in a minor support area. The Minneapolis/ KC spreads broke out in favor of the May contract last week but have fallen back into a support area since then.over 8 cents Also, the July congtract never gave me a buy signal, at least not yet. I would first need to see a close over  -15.0 before I would look more closely at placing positions. I would then probably begin buying retracements. CALL FOR DETAILS! Finally, we have to keep an eye on the Ukraine situations. Oats had its lowest close in 1 1/2 weeks but now in some support..I still need to close over 460 before I would look at buying or down around 380 if the technical's look right at that time. Meanwhile, stand aside.They're still in an uptrend overall but starting to act heavy. The 400 area remains important to hold psychologically. The weekly chart shows rice has been consolidating in a trading range between 1520 and 1580 since the middle of December. It seems to be forming a large possible bottom but acting very choppy at the same time which is what happens many times at tops and bottoms. Still, I would rather be conservative and stand aside until I see a close over 1590 or below 1530. Corn settled down but continues to look strong technically although lagging  behind the bean and meal overall. Now it had reversal type action on April 9th, I'm looking for a retracement back to a strong support area (475-590) Corn has impressively rallied since the beginning of March in spite of drastically reduced cattle and hog herds. Don't forget around 75% of corn goes into feed down from 85% before ethanol was thrust upon us. The bean complex settled lower but still looking strong overall led by the beans and meal. The beans nearest support is under 1435 while the meal's is below 470. Oil continues to lag far behind the beans and meal but has been held up thanks to them. BUY SIGNALS FOR MINNEAPOLIS, KANSAS CITY AND CHICAGO WHEAT LONG WITH OATS, CORN, SOYBEANS, SOYBEAN MEAL AND SOYBEAN OIL. CALL FOR DETAILS.  For additional charts, quotes, news, commentary & more sign-up for a FREE 30-day trial to Market head.Com

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


NO UPDATE TODAY

Posted on 4/16/2014 6:23:26 AM by: Rick Alexander, VP, Trading @ Zaner. 312-277-0107.

 

Higher for rough rice while lower for corn, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, Minneapolis, Kansas City and Chicago wheat. I keep stating that we all know the world supply of wheat is large but that hadn't stopped the wheat, until three weeks ago, from moving higher in a 45 degree angle since the beginning of February. Because of its rally this year, the wheat complex has liitle support nearby but decent resistance around forty cents above all three. Now the wheat complex is in a minor support area. The Minneapolis/ KC spreads broke out in favor of the May contract last week but have fallen back into a support area since then.over 8 cents Also, the July congtract never gave me a buy signal, at least not yet. I would first need to see a close over  -15.0 before I would look more closely at placing positions. I would then probably begin buying retracements. CALL FOR DETAILS! Finally, we have to keep an eye on the Ukraine situations. Oats had its lowest close in 1 1/2 weeks but now in some support..I still need to close over 460 before I would look at buying or down around 380 if the technical's look right at that time. Meanwhile, stand aside.They're still in an uptrend overall but starting to act heavy. The 400 area remains important to hold psychologically. The weekly chart shows rice has been consolidating in a trading range between 1520 and 1580 since the middle of December. It seems to be forming a large possible bottom but acting very choppy at the same time which is what happens many times at tops and bottoms. Still, I would rather be conservative and stand aside until I see a close over 1590 or below 1530. Corn settled down but continues to look strong technically although lagging  behind the bean and meal overall. Now it had reversal type action on April 9th, I'm looking for a retracement back to a strong support area (475-590) Corn has impressively rallied since the beginning of March in spite of drastically reduced cattle and hog herds. Don't forget around 75% of corn goes into feed down from 85% before ethanol was thrust upon us. The bean complex settled lower but still looking strong overall led by the beans and meal. The beans nearest support is under 1435 while the meal's is below 470. Oil continues to lag far behind the beans and meal but has been held up thanks to them. BUY SIGNALS FOR MINNEAPOLIS, KANSAS CITY AND CHICAGO WHEAT LONG WITH OATS, CORN, SOYBEANS, SOYBEAN MEAL AND SOYBEAN OIL. CALL FOR DETAILS.  For additional charts, quotes, news, commentary & more sign-up for a FREE 30-day trial to Market head.Com

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


The Fundamental Difference in Soybeans

Posted on 4/15/2014 5:13:02 PM by: Ted Seifried, VP, Ag Hedging @ Zaner. 312-277-0113.

There is a vast difference between old crop and new crop soybean fundamentals.  With a record pace of exports and strong domestic usage old crop soybeans have a bullish story.  However, with a projected record world carry over, projected record US acreage and a forecast for a moderate El Nino growing season the new crop soybean situation may be more bearish then what we have seen in years.  So far the bullish old crop soybean situation has taken center stage but as we get closer to the USDA's first estimate of a new crop balance sheet and planting the US soybean crop will the new crop story get more attention?
 
The old crop soybean situation has been a bullish factor for the soybean complex as well as for the grain complex as a whole.  Export sales were much stronger then expected and have set a record pace.  It seems that global end users may have been double booking their needs buying both US and South American soybeans with the idea that if South America were to have issues getting their soybean crop to the ports and shipped out like they have in years past they would already have US soybeans booked and would not have to pay up on a South American delay rally, and if not the plan was to cancel US shipments and take the South American beans.  However when South America was able to get soybeans moved into position for export and was able to start making shipments the US would not allow cancellations, possibly related to China rejecting US corn cargoes due to an unapproved GMO strain.
 
In the end the US export sales have been shipping out and the record pace of sales and shipments along with strong domestic demand has left us with a very tight soybean balance sheet and a need to price ration demand.  Since February soybean prices have rallied sharply but while export sales have fallen off in recent weeks the March NOPA crush suggests that domestic demand remains strong.  The NOPA crush number is a bit of a lagging indicator, but could be suggesting that more price rationing is needed to avoid running out of soybeans this year.  Higher prices could also draw more South American imports, and it is possible that the higher crush number is a reflection of bigger South American imports as well.
 
The new crop soybean situation is almost the opposite of the old crop situation.  Higher soybean prices and lower corn prices along with weak corn basis in the North due to logistical issues has encouraged a big shift to soybean acres this year.  At the current USDA projection we would be looking at a record planted acreage number for soybeans.  Given a normal growing season this could translate into one of the largest stocks numbers we have seen in recent years.  And, although longer term weather forecasts can be a bit of a crap shoot they are currently calling for a very favorable El Nino weather pattern during the growing season.  On top of that global demand seems to be slowing down at higher pries and with a huge South American crop in the process of being harvested the world stocks number is projected to be at a record high.  This might mean that the world will be flush with soybeans next year.  Certainly we still have a growing season to get through but, if we don't have a major weather issue we may see big soybean stocks next year.
 
As we get ready to plant soybeans and as we start to think about what the USDA might estimate for next years balance sheet the market's focus may begin to shift from the bullish old crop fundamentals to the more bearish new crop fundamentals.  This will not happen over night, but April or May is typically when this starts to happen.  Now might a good time to take a look at new crop soybean prices and lock in some prices while the focus is still solidly on the bullish old crop fundamentals.
 
Feel free to give me a call or shoot me an email if you would like to talk about your marketing plan, the markets, weather, or just to visit.   
 
May Corn Daily chart:

May Soybeans Daily chart:

May Wheat Daily chart:

All this means that speculators should be looking for opportunities and producers need to look to lock up some prices. Give me a call for some ideas. In particular, producers looking to hedge all or a portion of their production may be rather interested in some of the options / options-futures strategies that I am currently using.

In my mind there has to be a balance. Neither technical nor fundamental analysis alone is enough to be consistent. Please give me a call for a trade recommendation, and we can put together a trade strategy tailored to your needs. Be safe!

Ted Seifried (312) 277-0113 or tseifried@zaner.com

Additional charts, studies, and more of my commentary can be found at: http://markethead.com/2.0/free_trial.asp?ap=tseifrie


What is the Real Deal on US Soybean Imports?

Posted on 4/15/2014 3:45:01 PM by: Ted Seifried, VP, Ag Hedging @ Zaner. 312-277-0113.

On the April 9th USDA WASDE report the USDA finally increased export demand to reflect the record pace of soybean export sales and shipments.  The 50 million bushel increase in soybean exports was partially offset  by a 30 million bushel increase in imports as well as a reduction in crush and residual.  With the USDA now estimating 65 million bushels in exports this would be a record amount of soybeans imported in to the US.  But how accurate is the USDA's estimate?
 
In the notes of the Executive Summary of the USDA's April WASDE report the USDA stated that they were increasing imports to a record 65 million bushels based on trade reported through February and the expectation of shipments from South America in the second half of the year...  First of all, we would love to see what the trade reported through February was as well as how and by whom it was reported.  As it stands the USDA does not have a reporting system in place to account for soybean exports.  So how are they getting these numbers?  It would be very helpful to know and would add more transparency to their reporting methods.  The last few years and this year in particular highlight the need for an import reporting system.  It is rather likely that soybean imports to the US will continue to grow in coming years and it would be nice to know that the USDA is not just pulling numbers out of thin air or just using whatever plugs into their balance sheets.  And, if they do have some sort of reporting system from which they got import data through February why are they not making this public.  If I were a betting man I would say if that had something we would have seen it.  Saying it is there doesn't mean it's there, but this seems to be a concept lost on the USDA.
 
Secondly, if there were measurable imports coming into the US through February then where were they coming from?  On a good year some areas in Brazil are able to get out into fields and start harvesting, most areas are still weeks if not months away and Argentina usually doesn't get going until the beginning of April.  So, are we talking old crop South American soybeans here?  If this is the case it would stand to reason that there will be or maybe already has been a lot more where that came from (literally) as new crop supplies become available.  Another thing is that soybeans hadn't traded above $13.25 until the second half of February.  If South America was selling us old crop soybeans at $13.00 what do you think they are thinking at $15.00 just as they are sitting on a pile (again literally) of newly harvested stock?
 
The question is - with a lack of USDA reporting system for imports who would be telling us what is coming in?  It would have to be commercials but here is where the problem lies.  Some late season hot and dry conditions had the soybean market at a steep inverse going into harvest.  Spreads were asking producers to sell soybeans off the combine and store corn and to a large extent this is what happened.  So, the majority of last year's soybean crop lies in the hands of the commercials at this point.  So, if thy own the soybeans would they want to divulge news that would very likely put pressure on prices?  Probably not.  At this point commercials could be buying South American soybeans, shipping them to the US and selling them at higher prices with the market having very little knowledge of this.  In fact there have been many rumors of large soybean imports and even in some cases shipments of South American soybeans coming into the US only to turn around and get sent to China.  But again, without any sort of reporting system we have no way of knowing what is true and what is not.  The March 31st stocks report was likely too early to reflect much in the way of imports, but the June 31st quarterly grain stocks report could have a surprise waiting.
 
Ultimately, we may never know how many soybean were imported in the US this year.  The USDA should do something to address this in years to come.  The interesting thing is that if we are looking at a tighter soybean carry over then last year why is basis not reflecting this?  Either way, this may not really matter at the moment anyway.  For now funds have found a bull market to exploit and will likely continue to do so until they decide to get out.  This could continue to push soybean prices higher despite what many if not most analysts see as a bearish fundamental backdrop.  And who knows what the funds have planned.  In the long run this could be bad for markets because demand may suffer at higher prices and this could be setting markets up for a sharp drop at some point in the future.
 
Feel free to give me a call or shoot me an email if you would like to talk about your marketing plan, the markets, weather, or just to visit.   
 
May Corn Daily chart:

May Soybeans Daily chart:

May Wheat Daily chart:

All this means that speculators should be looking for opportunities and producers need to look to lock up some prices. Give me a call for some ideas. In particular, producers looking to hedge all or a portion of their production may be rather interested in some of the options / options-futures strategies that I am currently using.

In my mind there has to be a balance. Neither technical nor fundamental analysis alone is enough to be consistent. Please give me a call for a trade recommendation, and we can put together a trade strategy tailored to your needs. Be safe!

Ted Seifried (312) 277-0113 or tseifried@zaner.com

Additional charts, studies, and more of my commentary can be found at: http://markethead.com/2.0/free_trial.asp?ap=tseifrie


EXPORT INSPECTIONS. CROP PROGRESS

Posted on 4/14/2014 7:32:43 AM by: Rick Alexander, VP, Trading @ Zaner. 312-277-0107.

 

Higher for rough rice while lower for corn, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, Minneapolis, Kansas City and Chicago wheat. I keep stating that we all know the world supply of wheat is large but that hadn't stopped the wheat, until three weeks ago, from moving higher in a 45 degree angle since the beginning of February. Because of its rally this year, the wheat complex has liitle support nearby but decent resistance around forty cents above all three. Now the wheat complex is in a minor support area. The Minneapolis/ KC spreads broke out in favor of the May contract last week but have fallen back into a support area since then.over 8 cents Also, the July congtract never gave me a buy signal, at least not yet. I would first need to see a close over  -15.0 before I would look more closely at placing positions. I would then probably begin buying retracements. CALL FOR DETAILS! Finally, we have to keep an eye on the Ukraine situations. Oats had its lowest close in 1 1/2 weeks but now in some support..I still need to close over 460 before I would look at buying or down around 380 if the technical's look right at that time. Meanwhile, stand aside.They're still in an uptrend overall but starting to act heavy. The 400 area remains important to hold psychologically. The weekly chart shows rice has been consolidating in a trading range between 1520 and 1580 since the middle of December. It seems to be forming a large possible bottom but acting very choppy at the same time which is what happens many times at tops and bottoms. Still, I would rather be conservative and stand aside until I see a close over 1590 or below 1530. Corn settled down but continues to look strong technically although lagging  behind the bean and meal overall. Now it had reversal type action on April 9th, I'm looking for a retracement back to a strong support area (475-590) Corn has impressively rallied since the beginning of March in spite of drastically reduced cattle and hog herds. Don't forget around 75% of corn goes into feed down from 85% before ethanol was thrust upon us. The bean complex settled lower but still looking strong overall led by the beans and meal. The beans nearest support is under 1435 while the meal's is below 470. Oil continues to lag far behind the beans and meal but has been held up thanks to them. BUY SIGNALS FOR MINNEAPOLIS, KANSAS CITY AND CHICAGO WHEAT LONG WITH OATS, CORN, SOYBEANS, SOYBEAN MEAL AND SOYBEAN OIL. CALL FOR DETAILS.  For additional charts, quotes, news, commentary & more sign-up for a FREE 30-day trial to Market head.Com

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


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