USDA Crop Report

News & commentary on the USDA Crop Report and Grain Futures markets including wheat, soybeans, corn & more

USDA Crop Report is a blog dedicated to bringing updates, news and commentary on the USDA Crop Report and the grain futures markets including wheat, corn, soybeans and more.

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10/16 wheat buy signal

Posted on 10/20/2014 1:22:19 PM by: Larry Baer, Market Strategist @ Zaner. 312-277-0112.

Call me for trade

 

 


NO UPDATE TODAY

Posted on 10/20/2014 6:34:59 AM by: Rick Alexander, VP, Trading @ Zaner. 312-277-0107.

WE HAVE A VERY GOOD HEDGING DEPARTMENT HEADED BY TED SEIFRIED. WHY NOT TALK TO HIM OR ANY OF OUR OTHER HEDGING BROKERS. NO ONE WILL PRESSURE YOU AND WHAT HAVE YOU GOT TO LOSE? I'VE BEEN A LICENSED FUTURES BROKER FOR 41 YEARS AND TRUST NO ONE MORE THAN TED AND HIS GROUP

 

Higher closes for Minneapolis,Kansas City and Chicago wheat along with corn, rough rice, soybeans, and soybean meal while lower for soybean oil. The action lately continues to act like the grain complex has been oversold, at least for now. The monthly grain report leaned toward the bearish side but the grain complex, so far, has basically ignored it as evidenced by the charts below. Of course, this complex is and has been in a long term downtrend and any buy signals would have to be considered short term until proven otherwise. Part of the problem is that it seems the bears are 'loaded up' with little ammunition left leaving a vacuum above not to mention not a lot of resistance nearby. So, be careful of what you do and don't invest too heavily in either direction at this time. The wheat complex settled higher making their best closes since the middle of September for KC and Chicago wheat. The wheat complex charts suggest at least a short term bottom is in place with Minneapolis having its nearest resistance around 615 and in a possible BULL FLAG. This suggests room to retrace higher which could be a good opportunity to start hedging the next crop year. Meanwhile, I'm removing my sell signals separately only if each of the wheat takes out and closes above last week's highs. KC really has little resistance up to at least the 620 area and, like Minneapolis and Chicago (next resistance above 640), could have a nice rally. Oats settled higher still in good resistance stalling out over the last week. Holding 320 was important in my opinion but I still prefer to remain on the sidelines. Rice also settled higher and while still in a downtrend overall, could be forming a possible bottom but it remains in a sideways trading range since around the middle of September. A close over 1300 could reverse its downtrend trend. Corn had its best high and close since the beginning of September which included ending up above the 350 psychological area. Strong looking resistance remains from 360 up to around 375. Every farmer that reads my comments should call me about hedging concerns so I can place them with one of our qualified hedging brokers. You should always be thinking ahead. Since everybody knows the government is looking at record crops and yields and corn storage remains a factor. Our hedge department says many farmers have been holding on to corn from the previous year(s) leaving little room for storage whereby farmers would be forced to sell a large part of their crops in the near term. The beans and meal settled higher while oil lower this time. Their prices remain high historically meaning this complex has room to fall much lower in the end but does act oversold at this moment. .Don't forget a large percentage of last year's bean crop is still in South America with another season coming. The July15/Dec15 meal/oil spreads continue to trade around even money which could mean the beans may not be done yet. Oil closed down, and while still bearish, has showed some bottoming signs or at least it's in a consolidation mode. However, that possible bottoming action could be slowly fading away. SELL SIGNALS FOR MINNEAPOLIS, KANSAS CITY AND CHICAGO WHEAT ALONG WITH CORN, ROUGH RICE SOYBEANS, SOYBEAN MEAL AND SOYBEAN OIL. CALL FOR DETAILS.  For additional charts, quotes, news, commentary & more sign-up for a FREE 30-day trial to Market head.Com.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


NO UPDATE TODAY

Posted on 10/20/2014 6:34:47 AM by: Rick Alexander, VP, Trading @ Zaner. 312-277-0107.

WE HAVE A VERY GOOD HEDGING DEPARTMENT HEADED BY TED SEIFRIED. WHY NOT TALK TO HIM OR ANY OF OUR OTHER HEDGING BROKERS. NO ONE WILL PRESSURE YOU AND WHAT HAVE YOU GOT TO LOSE? I'VE BEEN A LICENSED FUTURES BROKER FOR 41 YEARS AND TRUST NO ONE MORE THAN TED AND HIS GROUP

 

Higher closes for Minneapolis,Kansas City and Chicago wheat along with corn, rough rice, soybeans, and soybean meal while lower for soybean oil. The action lately continues to act like the grain complex has been oversold, at least for now. The monthly grain report leaned toward the bearish side but the grain complex, so far, has basically ignored it as evidenced by the charts below. Of course, this complex is and has been in a long term downtrend and any buy signals would have to be considered short term until proven otherwise. Part of the problem is that it seems the bears are 'loaded up' with little ammunition left leaving a vacuum above not to mention not a lot of resistance nearby. So, be careful of what you do and don't invest too heavily in either direction at this time. The wheat complex settled higher making their best closes since the middle of September for KC and Chicago wheat. The wheat complex charts suggest at least a short term bottom is in place with Minneapolis having its nearest resistance around 615 and in a possible BULL FLAG. This suggests room to retrace higher which could be a good opportunity to start hedging the next crop year. Meanwhile, I'm removing my sell signals separately only if each of the wheat takes out and closes above last week's highs. KC really has little resistance up to at least the 620 area and, like Minneapolis and Chicago (next resistance above 640), could have a nice rally. Oats settled higher still in good resistance stalling out over the last week. Holding 320 was important in my opinion but I still prefer to remain on the sidelines. Rice also settled higher and while still in a downtrend overall, could be forming a possible bottom but it remains in a sideways trading range since around the middle of September. A close over 1300 could reverse its downtrend trend. Corn had its best high and close since the beginning of September which included ending up above the 350 psychological area. Strong looking resistance remains from 360 up to around 375. Every farmer that reads my comments should call me about hedging concerns so I can place them with one of our qualified hedging brokers. You should always be thinking ahead. Since everybody knows the government is looking at record crops and yields and corn storage remains a factor. Our hedge department says many farmers have been holding on to corn from the previous year(s) leaving little room for storage whereby farmers would be forced to sell a large part of their crops in the near term. The beans and meal settled higher while oil lower this time. Their prices remain high historically meaning this complex has room to fall much lower in the end but does act oversold at this moment. .Don't forget a large percentage of last year's bean crop is still in South America with another season coming. The July15/Dec15 meal/oil spreads continue to trade around even money which could mean the beans may not be done yet. Oil closed down, and while still bearish, has showed some bottoming signs or at least it's in a consolidation mode. However, that possible bottoming action could be slowly fading away. SELL SIGNALS FOR MINNEAPOLIS, KANSAS CITY AND CHICAGO WHEAT ALONG WITH CORN, ROUGH RICE SOYBEANS, SOYBEAN MEAL AND SOYBEAN OIL. CALL FOR DETAILS.  For additional charts, quotes, news, commentary & more sign-up for a FREE 30-day trial to Market head.Com.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


Is the Low in for Soybeans?

Posted on 10/16/2014 1:24:58 PM by: Ted Seifried, VP, Ag Hedging @ Zaner. 312-277-0113.

As of the close on Thursday November soybeans are 44 cents higher on the week and 62 1/2 cents off of the low.  Weather concerns for the US harvest and South American planting season have been a factor in pulling soybeans off of the lows.  Outside markets have had an impact as well as large investors look to reduce risk.  The combination of weather concerns and fund buying has sparked a larger short covering rally, but is the low now in for soybeans?
 
Wet weather across a large portion of the US growing area in the last week has slowed harvest dramatically.  At the same time South America has some weather concerns of their own.  Northern Brazil is very dry and planting progress has slowed dramatically waiting for some rain.  Southern Brazil and Argentina have had too much rain which is also slowing planting progress dramatically.  However, the weather forecast going forward is looking better for all of the areas of concern.  For the US forecasts are looking for mostly dry weather in the next two weeks which will allow for aggressive harvest progress once rain soaked areas dry out.  The high pressure ridge over Northern Brazil is forecast to break down early next week and confidence is building as we get closer to that time frame.  Southern Brazil and Argentina are forecast to have some breaks in the rain to get more planting done as well.
 
Outside markets have been a wild card this week.  The US dollar falling off of 4-year highs has encouraged commodity buying across the board.  At the same time global economic concerns and Ebola concerns have put a lot of pressure on equities markets.  This all has large investors looking for less risk and more safety.  Some of the large speculators that have been short soybeans have been actively covering shorts to reduce risk while others have been entering into new long positions as a hedge against the reversal in the dollar.  So, different funds have been buying for different reasons but when you see fund buying happening in a market that has been in a longer term downtrend it can spark a larger short covering movement.  This is very likely what has been the case for soybeans recently.
 
This short covering rally in soybeans may have put in a low for the moment and may have put in a low for the November contract.  However, going forward it is difficult to assume that the fundamental outlook for soybeans has gotten much better.  Planting de3lays in South America are a concern.  If there were to be a major issue with the South American soybean crop there could be a sharp increase in demand for US soybeans and we could cut through our seemingly large ending stocks very quickly.  However, it is very early in the South American growing season and they still have a lot of time to get the crop planted.  We will continue to monitor this situation but we feel that South America will likely get the soybean crop planted in a timely fashion.
 
If South America can get the soybean crop planted and has a near normal growing season global stocks of soybeans would rise to a new record high.  On top of that we could still see an increase to last years record soybeans acreage in the US.  Soybeans do not represent a much more attractive profit margin at current price levels but they do represent less input cost and therefore less risk.  After a year of low prices producers may be looking to minimize risk for the coming growing season and could plant more soybeans.
 
Overall the fundamental picture in soybeans has not changed dramatically from what we are seeing.  We have a record crop here in the US and South America is in the process of planting another record amount of soybean acres.  With a mostly normal growing season we could have record soybean supplies this year.  US planted acres could set a new record next year as well.  Without a major production issue in South America global soybean prices could continue to decline.  The recent rally in soybeans could be a corrective bounce in a larger downtrend.  If this is the case it would be a good opportunity for producers to sell some production almost 70 cents better then a few weeks ago.
 
Feel free to give me a call or shoot me an email if you would like to talk about your marketing plan, the markets, weather, or just to visit.  Also, follow me on twitter @thetedspread if that is your thing. 
 
December Corn Daily chart:

November Soybeans Daily chart:

December Wheat Daily chart:

All this means that speculators should be looking for opportunities and producers need to look to lock up some prices. Give me a call for some ideas. In particular, producers looking to hedge all or a portion of their production may be rather interested in some of the options / options-futures strategies that I am currently using.

In my mind there has to be a balance. Neither technical nor fundamental analysis alone is enough to be consistent. Please give me a call for a trade recommendation, and we can put together a trade strategy tailored to your needs. Be safe!

Ted Seifried (312) 277-0113 or tseifried@zaner.com

Additional charts, studies, and more of my commentary can be found at: http://markethead.com/2.0/free_trial.asp?ap=tseifrie


Is the Low in for Corn?

Posted on 10/16/2014 12:38:44 PM by: Ted Seifried, VP, Ag Hedging @ Zaner. 312-277-0113.

As December corn has just put in it's seventh consecutive day higher there is lots of speculation swirling around the market that the low may now be in for corn.  The long term fundamentals for corn are compelling, however short term fundamentals are difficult to overlook.  While we are not and have not been bearish corn under $3.20, it may be a challenging time to expect the low to be in for corn.
 
Longer term corn will struggle to hold on to planted acreage at current prices.  Corn planted acreage was already down sharply in 2014 and another reduction in acreage could result in corn production well below the pace of demand.  So, we can build a strong argument that at some point corn will need to either "buy" acres with higher prices or put a premium on ending stocks to build the largest carry in possible again with higher prices.  There is also very little that you can do with sub $3.50 corn that isn't profitable.  Ethanol, exports and feed demand should all remain relatively strong with lower prices.
 
In the short term however we are in the process of digesting record corn and soybean crops.  For corn it seems extremely likely that we are looking at a record national average yield and most likely a record production figure as well.  This is a lot of corn to move in a relatively short period of time and corn will be competing for storage with an also record soybean crop.  To compound the issue it seems that much of these corn bushels going to market have not been sold yet and a large number of bushels will get sold off the combine which could mean more selling pressure in the market.  A slow start to harvest has kept this selling pressure from overwhelming the market and spread out corn sales so far.  This may keep corn prices a bit more stable, but at 17% harvested as of 10/6 there is still a lot of this crop yet to absorb. 
 
In the long run we can see the need for corn prices to go higher to buy acreage.  If corn is unsuccessful in buying acreage we can see the need for higher prices to slow demand and try to keep as large of an ending stocks number as possible to take into next year.  However in the short term the overriding market driver could be the massive harvest we are just in the beginning stages of getting into.  We are not looking for corn prices to go much lower.  Yield reports may get less amazing as the harvest moves further North and West and we expect that local basis may do much of the work but we also think it may be premature to expect the low to be in for corn for now.
 
Feel free to give me a call or shoot me an email if you would like to talk about your marketing plan, the markets, weather, or just to visit.  Also, follow me on twitter @thetedspread if that is your thing. 
 
December Corn Daily chart:

November Soybeans Daily chart:

December Wheat Daily chart:

All this means that speculators should be looking for opportunities and producers need to look to lock up some prices. Give me a call for some ideas. In particular, producers looking to hedge all or a portion of their production may be rather interested in some of the options / options-futures strategies that I am currently using.

In my mind there has to be a balance. Neither technical nor fundamental analysis alone is enough to be consistent. Please give me a call for a trade recommendation, and we can put together a trade strategy tailored to your needs. Be safe!

Ted Seifried (312) 277-0113 or tseifried@zaner.com

Additional charts, studies, and more of my commentary can be found at: http://markethead.com/2.0/free_trial.asp?ap=tseifrie


ARE THE GRAINS OVERSOLD?

Posted on 10/15/2014 7:28:51 AM by: Rick Alexander, VP, Trading @ Zaner. 312-277-0107.

WE HAVE A VERY GOOD HEDGING DEPARTMENT HEADED BY TED SEIFRIED. WHY NOT TALK TO HIM OR ANY OF OUR OTHER HEDGING BROKERS. NO ONE WILL PRESSURE YOU AND WHAT HAVE YOU GOT TO LOSE? I'VE BEEN A LICENSED FUTURES BROKER FOR 41 YEARS AND TRUST NO ONE MORE THAN TED AND HIS GROUP

 

Higher closes for Minneapolis,Kansas City and Chicago wheat along with corn, rough rice, soybeans, and soybean meal while lower for soybean oil. The action lately continues to act like the grain complex has been oversold, at least for now. The monthly grain report leaned toward the bearish side but the grain complex, so far, has basically ignored it as evidenced by the charts below. Of course, this complex is and has been in a long term downtrend and any buy signals would have to be considered short term until proven otherwise. Part of the problem is that it seems the bears are 'loaded up' with little ammunition left leaving a vacuum above not to mention not a lot of resistance nearby. So, be careful of what you do and don't invest too heavily in either direction at this time. The wheat complex settled higher making their best closes since the middle of September for KC and Chicago wheat. The wheat complex charts suggest at least a short term bottom is in place with Minneapolis having its nearest resistance around 615 and in a possible BULL FLAG. This suggests room to retrace higher which could be a good opportunity to start hedging the next crop year. Meanwhile, I'm removing my sell signals separately only if each of the wheat takes out and closes above last week's highs. KC really has little resistance up to at least the 620 area and, like Minneapolis and Chicago (next resistance above 640), could have a nice rally. Oats settled higher still in good resistance stalling out over the last week. Holding 320 was important in my opinion but I still prefer to remain on the sidelines. Rice also settled higher and while still in a downtrend overall, could be forming a possible bottom but it remains in a sideways trading range since around the middle of September. A close over 1300 could reverse its downtrend trend. Corn had its best high and close since the beginning of September which included ending up above the 350 psychological area. Strong looking resistance remains from 360 up to around 375. Every farmer that reads my comments should call me about hedging concerns so I can place them with one of our qualified hedging brokers. You should always be thinking ahead. Since everybody knows the government is looking at record crops and yields and corn storage remains a factor. Our hedge department says many farmers have been holding on to corn from the previous year(s) leaving little room for storage whereby farmers would be forced to sell a large part of their crops in the near term. The beans and meal settled higher while oil lower this time. Their prices remain high historically meaning this complex has room to fall much lower in the end but does act oversold at this moment. .Don't forget a large percentage of last year's bean crop is still in South America with another season coming. The July15/Dec15 meal/oil spreads continue to trade around even money which could mean the beans may not be done yet. Oil closed down, and while still bearish, has showed some bottoming signs or at least it's in a consolidation mode. However, that possible bottoming action could be slowly fading away. SELL SIGNALS FOR MINNEAPOLIS, KANSAS CITY AND CHICAGO WHEAT ALONG WITH CORN, ROUGH RICE SOYBEANS, SOYBEAN MEAL AND SOYBEAN OIL. CALL FOR DETAILS.  For additional charts, quotes, news, commentary & more sign-up for a FREE 30-day trial to Market head.Com.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


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