USDA Crop Report

News & commentary on the USDA Crop Report and Grain Futures markets including wheat, soybeans, corn & more

USDA Crop Report is a blog dedicated to bringing updates, news and commentary on the USDA Crop Report and the grain futures markets including wheat, corn, soybeans and more.

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ONLY UPDATE THIS WEEK ON WEDNESDAY

Posted on 9/22/2014 5:14:24 AM by: Rick Alexander, VP, Trading @ Zaner. 312-277-0107.

WE HAVE A VERY GOOD HEDGING DEPARTMENT HEADED BY TED SEIFRIED. WHY NOT TALK TO HIM OR ANY OF OUR OTHER HEDGING BROKERS. NO ONE WILL PRESSURE YOU AND WHAT HAVE YOU GOT TO LOSE? I'VE BEEN A LICENSED FUTURES BROKER FOR 41 YEARS AND TRUST NO ONE MORE THAN TED AND HIS GROUP

 

Higher closes for corn and soybeans while lower for soybean meal, soybean oil, oats, rough rice, Minneapolis, Kansas City and Chicago wheat. I guess every wheat farmer is tired of reading my bearish comments about the wheat complex. To tell you the truth, it feels like I've been bearish for the entire forty one years I've been a licensed futures broker. So, it should be no surprise that I'm reporting that Minneapolis, Kansas City and Chicago wheat had lower closes for six, six and seven consecutive trading sessions in a row. Also, the last five sessions for Minneapolis and KC while six for Chicago have made new CONTRACT LOWS and CLOSES! There's no resistance nearby and little support below too. Besides that, the Minneapolis/KC spreads have been falling back again keeping me very disappointed at its action so far. Oats settled slightly lower but continuing to look bullish since the latter part of July. You can see below that the oats have been moving higher in an orderly fashion. Rice settled down again after recently retracing higher back into its nearest resistance area. I really need to see a close over 1300 before I begin to look at a possible turnaround. Corn settled up also making its best high in a week but, obviously, continues to look very bearish overall with strong looking resistance from 360 up to around 375. However, my next objective is still the 320's even though I feel it will test the 350 area again. Every farmer that reads my comments should call me about hedging concerns so I can place them with one of our qualified hedging brokers. You should always be thinking ahead. Since everybody knows the government is looking at record crops and yields and corn storage is at a high, the only hope for the remaining bulls in the near term is a freeze scare in my opinion. Our hedge department says many farmers have been holding on to corn from the previous year(s) leaving little room for storage whereby farmers would be forced to sell a large part of their crops in the near term. The beans settled higher but the meal made a new CONTRACT LOW AND CLOSE while oil had its best high since August 15th before settling lower in reversal type action. However, at least oil is showing some bottoming signs probably being helped by unwinding and/or new meal/oil spreads in favor of the oil. SELL SIGNALS FOR MINNEAPOLIS, KANSAS CITY AND CHICAGO WHEAT ALONG WITH CORN, ROUGH RICE SOYBEANS, SOYBEAN MEAL AND SOYBEAN OIL. CALL FOR DETAILS.  For additional charts, quotes, news, commentary & more sign-up for a FREE 30-day trial to Market head.Com

 

  

 

 

 

 

  

 

 


ONLY UPDATE THIS WEEK ON WEDNESDAY

Posted on 9/22/2014 5:14:13 AM by: Rick Alexander, VP, Trading @ Zaner. 312-277-0107.

WE HAVE A VERY GOOD HEDGING DEPARTMENT HEADED BY TED SEIFRIED. WHY NOT TALK TO HIM OR ANY OF OUR OTHER HEDGING BROKERS. NO ONE WILL PRESSURE YOU AND WHAT HAVE YOU GOT TO LOSE? I'VE BEEN A LICENSED FUTURES BROKER FOR 41 YEARS AND TRUST NO ONE MORE THAN TED AND HIS GROUP

 

Higher closes for corn and soybeans while lower for soybean meal, soybean oil, oats, rough rice, Minneapolis, Kansas City and Chicago wheat. I guess every wheat farmer is tired of reading my bearish comments about the wheat complex. To tell you the truth, it feels like I've been bearish for the entire forty one years I've been a licensed futures broker. So, it should be no surprise that I'm reporting that Minneapolis, Kansas City and Chicago wheat had lower closes for six, six and seven consecutive trading sessions in a row. Also, the last five sessions for Minneapolis and KC while six for Chicago have made new CONTRACT LOWS and CLOSES! There's no resistance nearby and little support below too. Besides that, the Minneapolis/KC spreads have been falling back again keeping me very disappointed at its action so far. Oats settled slightly lower but continuing to look bullish since the latter part of July. You can see below that the oats have been moving higher in an orderly fashion. Rice settled down again after recently retracing higher back into its nearest resistance area. I really need to see a close over 1300 before I begin to look at a possible turnaround. Corn settled up also making its best high in a week but, obviously, continues to look very bearish overall with strong looking resistance from 360 up to around 375. However, my next objective is still the 320's even though I feel it will test the 350 area again. Every farmer that reads my comments should call me about hedging concerns so I can place them with one of our qualified hedging brokers. You should always be thinking ahead. Since everybody knows the government is looking at record crops and yields and corn storage is at a high, the only hope for the remaining bulls in the near term is a freeze scare in my opinion. Our hedge department says many farmers have been holding on to corn from the previous year(s) leaving little room for storage whereby farmers would be forced to sell a large part of their crops in the near term. The beans settled higher but the meal made a new CONTRACT LOW AND CLOSE while oil had its best high since August 15th before settling lower in reversal type action. However, at least oil is showing some bottoming signs probably being helped by unwinding and/or new meal/oil spreads in favor of the oil. SELL SIGNALS FOR MINNEAPOLIS, KANSAS CITY AND CHICAGO WHEAT ALONG WITH CORN, ROUGH RICE SOYBEANS, SOYBEAN MEAL AND SOYBEAN OIL. CALL FOR DETAILS.  For additional charts, quotes, news, commentary & more sign-up for a FREE 30-day trial to Market head.Com

 

  

 

 

 

 

  

 

 


09/18 Beans , Corn And Wheat have sell signals

Posted on 9/19/2014 1:46:10 PM by: Larry Baer, Market Strategist @ Zaner. 312-277-0112.

Call me for trade

 

 


Adding Pennies to Corn Bushels

Posted on 9/18/2014 5:10:58 PM by: Ted Seifried, VP, Ag Hedging @ Zaner. 312-277-0113.

Right now corn seems stuck in a strong down trend.  The frost damage fueled attempt at a bounce from earlier this week has been erased and corn is once again flirting with contract lows.  Enormous yield reports coming from Central Illinois and yet another private analyst's super sized yield estimate has moved into the focus for now.  Going forward the emphasis on corn has to be adding pennies to bushels to help with the bottom line.  While short positions have worked well to this point could we getting close to a time where it may be beneficial to be looking for a strategy to capitalize on a bounce?
 
Earlier this week a hard frost damaged many crops in the northern growing areas.  Estimates suggest that as much as ten million acres were effected.  At this point the true amount of damage is a little unclear as we have heard mixed reports.  Some will say that the damage was fairly minor and that the freeze may have only taken 5% of the remaining yield potential while others report near total loss in some areas.  For the moment the market is looking at this as having little impact on the total national production figure.  Combines will give us a much better picture but, we would not be surprised if the market is underestimating the impact on production.
 
In the mean time the bear camp and the market as a whole has taken hold of very big yield reports coming out of some early harvest efforts.  There have been reports coming out of Southern and Central growing areas that have been very large and well above previous record for the area.  To an extent the market should be expecting this as most of the huge yield reports are coming from areas that we knew were the best looking crops.  It will be interesting to see what happens as the harvest moves further North, especially into areas effected by early frost.  We would expect yield reports to less and less fantastic in the next few weeks.  We may even get to the point where we can legitimately question the huge national average yield estimates that are flying around the market right now.  There is also a question of planted acreage after a wet spring.  Some analysts are looking for a 500-800k reduction in acreage and this could further cut into the production number.  If this were to be the case, could we expect a mid-harvest rally off of lows?
 
If we were to get a mid-harvest rally off of lows it may be an opportunity for producers not only to sell cash corn higher but maybe to also add to the bottom line of sold bushels as well.  It is always a very tricky proposition to try to pick a top or a bottom in any market, however, and you would have to play your cards just right.  For this reason a more limited risk option strategy may be a useful tool.  If it is possible to spend 8-10 cents on a long options or long vertical spread trade that has a potential value of 60 cents this may be an interesting thought.  If you can define your risk to no more then 8-10 cents per 5,000 bushel and have a realistic 25-50 objective it may be a reasonable risk/reward proposition.  Keep in mind however, this is not a true hedge for producers.  It will not help protect the downside.  But, these are interesting times for grain marketing and if you can live with the risk it may be a way to add pennies (hopefully dimes) to corn bushels.
 
We currently have a strategy that we are looking at for producers who are looking for ways to do something like this.  Right now we think it is too early for something of this nature as we still have a big harvest in front of us.  However we do think this could be an opportunity at some point in the near future and we do have a specific set up we are looking for.  Give us a call if you would like to hear more about it.
 
Feel free to give me a call or shoot me an email if you would like to talk about your marketing plan, the markets, weather, or just to visit.   
 
December Corn Daily chart:

November Soybeans Daily chart:

December Wheat Daily chart:

All this means that speculators should be looking for opportunities and producers need to look to lock up some prices. Give me a call for some ideas. In particular, producers looking to hedge all or a portion of their production may be rather interested in some of the options / options-futures strategies that I am currently using.

In my mind there has to be a balance. Neither technical nor fundamental analysis alone is enough to be consistent. Please give me a call for a trade recommendation, and we can put together a trade strategy tailored to your needs. Be safe!

Ted Seifried (312) 277-0113 or tseifried@zaner.com

Additional charts, studies, and more of my commentary can be found at: http://markethead.com/2.0/free_trial.asp?ap=tseifrie


NO UPDATE TODAY

Posted on 9/18/2014 7:26:34 AM by: Rick Alexander, VP, Trading @ Zaner. 312-277-0107.

WE HAVE A VERY GOOD HEDGING DEPARTMENT HEADED BY TED SEIFRIED. WHY NOT TALK TO HIM OR ANY OF OUR OTHER HEDGING BROKERS. NO ONE WILL PRESSURE YOU AND WHAT HAVE YOU GOT TO LOSE? I'VE BEEN A LICENSED FUTURES BROKER FOR 41 YEARS AND TRUST NO ONE MORE THAN TED AND HIS GROUP

 

Higher closes for corn and soybeans while lower for soybean meal, soybean oil, oats, rough rice, Minneapolis, Kansas City and Chicago wheat. I guess every wheat farmer is tired of reading my bearish comments about the wheat complex. To tell you the truth, it feels like I've been bearish for the entire forty one years I've been a licensed futures broker. So, it should be no surprise that I'm reporting that Minneapolis, Kansas City and Chicago wheat had lower closes for six, six and seven consecutive trading sessions in a row. Also, the last five sessions for Minneapolis and KC while six for Chicago have made new CONTRACT LOWS and CLOSES! There's no resistance nearby and little support below too. Besides that, the Minneapolis/KC spreads have been falling back again keeping me very disappointed at its action so far. Oats settled slightly lower but continuing to look bullish since the latter part of July. You can see below that the oats have been moving higher in an orderly fashion. Rice settled down again after recently retracing higher back into its nearest resistance area. I really need to see a close over 1300 before I begin to look at a possible turnaround. Corn settled up also making its best high in a week but, obviously, continues to look very bearish overall with strong looking resistance from 360 up to around 375. However, my next objective is still the 320's even though I feel it will test the 350 area again. Every farmer that reads my comments should call me about hedging concerns so I can place them with one of our qualified hedging brokers. You should always be thinking ahead. Since everybody knows the government is looking at record crops and yields and corn storage is at a high, the only hope for the remaining bulls in the near term is a freeze scare in my opinion. Our hedge department says many farmers have been holding on to corn from the previous year(s) leaving little room for storage whereby farmers would be forced to sell a large part of their crops in the near term. The beans settled higher but the meal made a new CONTRACT LOW AND CLOSE while oil had its best high since August 15th before settling lower in reversal type action. However, at least oil is showing some bottoming signs probably being helped by unwinding and/or new meal/oil spreads in favor of the oil. SELL SIGNALS FOR MINNEAPOLIS, KANSAS CITY AND CHICAGO WHEAT ALONG WITH CORN, ROUGH RICE SOYBEANS, SOYBEAN MEAL AND SOYBEAN OIL. CALL FOR DETAILS.  For additional charts, quotes, news, commentary & more sign-up for a FREE 30-day trial to Market head.Com

 

  

 

 

 

 

  

 

 


MINNEAPOLIS & KANSAS CITY WHEAT HAVE 5 CONSECUTIVE CONTRACT LOWS AND CLOSES

Posted on 9/17/2014 7:39:20 AM by: Rick Alexander, VP, Trading @ Zaner. 312-277-0107.

WE HAVE A VERY GOOD HEDGING DEPARTMENT HEADED BY TED SEIFRIED. WHY NOT TALK TO HIM OR ANY OF OUR OTHER HEDGING BROKERS. NO ONE WILL PRESSURE YOU AND WHAT HAVE YOU GOT TO LOSE? I'VE BEEN A LICENSED FUTURES BROKER FOR 41 YEARS AND TRUST NO ONE MORE THAN TED AND HIS GROUP

 

Higher closes for corn and soybeans while lower for soybean meal, soybean oil, oats, rough rice, Minneapolis, Kansas City and Chicago wheat. I guess every wheat farmer is tired of reading my bearish comments about the wheat complex. To tell you the truth, it feels like I've been bearish for the entire forty one years I've been a licensed futures broker. So, it should be no surprise that I'm reporting that Minneapolis, Kansas City and Chicago wheat had lower closes for six, six and seven consecutive trading sessions in a row. Also, the last five sessions for Minneapolis and KC while six for Chicago have made new CONTRACT LOWS and CLOSES! There's no resistance nearby and little support below too. Besides that, the Minneapolis/KC spreads have been falling back again keeping me very disappointed at its action so far. Oats settled slightly lower but continuing to look bullish since the latter part of July. You can see below that the oats have been moving higher in an orderly fashion. Rice settled down again after recently retracing higher back into its nearest resistance area. I really need to see a close over 1300 before I begin to look at a possible turnaround. Corn settled up also making its best high in a week but, obviously, continues to look very bearish overall with strong looking resistance from 360 up to around 375. However, my next objective is still the 320's even though I feel it will test the 350 area again. Every farmer that reads my comments should call me about hedging concerns so I can place them with one of our qualified hedging brokers. You should always be thinking ahead. Since everybody knows the government is looking at record crops and yields and corn storage is at a high, the only hope for the remaining bulls in the near term is a freeze scare in my opinion. Our hedge department says many farmers have been holding on to corn from the previous year(s) leaving little room for storage whereby farmers would be forced to sell a large part of their crops in the near term. The beans settled higher but the meal made a new CONTRACT LOW AND CLOSE while oil had its best high since August 15th before settling lower in reversal type action. However, at least oil is showing some bottoming signs probably being helped by unwinding and/or new meal/oil spreads in favor of the oil. SELL SIGNALS FOR MINNEAPOLIS, KANSAS CITY AND CHICAGO WHEAT ALONG WITH CORN, ROUGH RICE SOYBEANS, SOYBEAN MEAL AND SOYBEAN OIL. CALL FOR DETAILS.  For additional charts, quotes, news, commentary & more sign-up for a FREE 30-day trial to Market head.Com

 

  

 

 

 

 

  

 

 


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