USDA Crop Report

News & commentary on the USDA Crop Report and Grain Futures markets including wheat, soybeans, corn & more

USDA Crop Report is a blog dedicated to bringing updates, news and commentary on the USDA Crop Report and the grain futures markets including wheat, corn, soybeans and more.

This blog is brought to you by Zaner Group, one of America's oldest family-owned and operated futures and forex brokers.  Zaner provides a wide range of services from research and recommendations to the execution of all your futures needs.

We invite you to join the thousands of other Zaner clients that have enjoyed our services.  Click here to learn how to open an account with Zaner.

If you're a member of the agricultural supply chain or follow the grains markets you may want to take advantage of Zaner's FREE Daily Ag. Hedge Newsletter.

Futures, options and forex trading is speculative in nature and involves substantial risk of loss.  These recommendations are a solicitation for entering into derivatives transactions.  All known news and events have already been factored into the price of the underlying derivatives discussed.  From time to time persons affiliated with Zaner, or its associated companies, may have positions in recommended and other derivatives.


08/24/2015 Beans sell signal

Posted on 8/27/2015 12:53:09 PM by: Larry Baer, Market Strategist @ Zaner. 312-277-0112.

Call me for trade



08/24/2015 Beans sell signal

Posted on 8/27/2015 12:52:01 PM by: Larry Baer, Market Strategist @ Zaner. 312-277-0112.

Call me for trade



THE CHINESE ECONOMIC WOES HAVEN'T HELPED!

Posted on 8/26/2015 6:38:05 AM by: Rick Alexander, VP, Trading @ Zaner. 312-277-0107.

WE HAVE A VERY GOOD HEDGING DEPARTMENT HEADED BY TED SEIFRIED. WHY NOT TALK TO HIM OR ANY OF OUR OTHER HEDGING BROKERS. NO ONE WILL PRESSURE YOU AND WHAT HAVE YOU GOT TO LOSE?  I'VE BEEN A LICENSED FUTURES BROKER FOR OVER 41 YEARS AND TRUST NO ONE MORE THAN TED AND HIS GROUP.

 

 

Higher closes for soybeans, soybean meal and soybean oil while lower for oats, rough rice, corn, Minneapolis, Kansas City and Chicago wheat. News of the Chinese economic woes have affected the world, grains included. Although the grain complex has been in an obvious bear market for quite some time, it still sold off when the Chinese news came out. However, the grains, as a whole, have held up better than many other markets because of being so low to begin with. That being said, Minneapolis and KC just made new CONTRACT LOW CLOSES. Minneapolis still has its nearest resistance around 530 and more at 550 while KC some small pockets of resistance just overhead (around the 500 area). Meanwhile, Chicago continues to be in a consolidation pattern over the last several weeks holding in its last support area so far. It now has a chance of ending its pattern of lower highs and lows on the weekly chart started back in May of last year. Of course, just don't forget grains are still in bear markets until proven otherwise. Continue to sell rallies with help from your broker and even better, our highly experienced hedge department, Since wheat is nearing the end of harvest time you might see a low in the cash markets for a while. Get experienced help for that as mentioned above. Oats made a new CONTRACT LOW CLOSE on Monday dropping five sessions in a row with its nearest resistance beginning near 240 and major resistance around 250 and above. There's still nothing bullish to say about this grain. Rice has retraced lower over the 1 1/2 weeks but still remains in a nice looking uptrend. If this uptrend is to continue rice need to hold the 1100 area and close over 1220. You can play the extremes of this range but I wouldn't take a long term position at this time. Corn continues to hold a strong looking support area and while acting toppy overall, has been trading roughly between 350 and 400  (critical psychological price) which are good parameters to trade until we see breakout in either direction. Also, there's still has one gap left at 429 1/4 that shouldn't be ignored. Hedgers have their own decisions to make based on their cost basis and yields accordingly which I keep mentioning for obvious reasons.The bean complex settled higher but soybeans and oil made new CONTRACT LOWS AND CLOSES on Monday both acting very bearish overall. At least meal has been consolidating over the last two weeks while holding 310 (beginning of support).  Oil just looks straight down. BUY SIGNAL FOR ROUGH RICE. SELL SIGNALS FOR MIINEAPOLIS, KANSAS CITY AND CHICAGO WHEAT ALONG WITH OATS. SOYBEANS, SOYMEAL AND SOYOIL. For additional charts, quotes, news, commentary & more, sign up for a FREE 30 -day trial to markethead.com.

 


THE CHINESE ECONOMIC WOES HAVEN'T HELPED!

Posted on 8/26/2015 6:37:50 AM by: Rick Alexander, VP, Trading @ Zaner. 312-277-0107.

WE HAVE A VERY GOOD HEDGING DEPARTMENT HEADED BY TED SEIFRIED. WHY NOT TALK TO HIM OR ANY OF OUR OTHER HEDGING BROKERS. NO ONE WILL PRESSURE YOU AND WHAT HAVE YOU GOT TO LOSE?  I'VE BEEN A LICENSED FUTURES BROKER FOR OVER 41 YEARS AND TRUST NO ONE MORE THAN TED AND HIS GROUP.

 

 

Higher closes for soybeans, soybean meal and soybean oil while lower for oats, rough rice, corn, Minneapolis, Kansas City and Chicago wheat. News of the Chinese economic woes have affected the world, grains included. Although the grain complex has been in an obvious bear market for quite some time, it still sold off when the Chinese news came out. However, the grains, as a whole, have held up better than many other markets because of being so low to begin with. That being said, Minneapolis and KC just made new CONTRACT LOW CLOSES. Minneapolis still has its nearest resistance around 530 and more at 550 while KC some small pockets of resistance just overhead (around the 500 area). Meanwhile, Chicago continues to be in a consolidation pattern over the last several weeks holding in its last support area so far. It now has a chance of ending its pattern of lower highs and lows on the weekly chart started back in May of last year. Of course, just don't forget grains are still in bear markets until proven otherwise. Continue to sell rallies with help from your broker and even better, our highly experienced hedge department, Since wheat is nearing the end of harvest time you might see a low in the cash markets for a while. Get experienced help for that as mentioned above. Oats made a new CONTRACT LOW CLOSE on Monday dropping five sessions in a row with its nearest resistance beginning near 240 and major resistance around 250 and above. There's still nothing bullish to say about this grain. Rice has retraced lower over the 1 1/2 weeks but still remains in a nice looking uptrend. If this uptrend is to continue rice need to hold the 1100 area and close over 1220. You can play the extremes of this range but I wouldn't take a long term position at this time. Corn continues to hold a strong looking support area and while acting toppy overall, has been trading roughly between 350 and 400  (critical psychological price) which are good parameters to trade until we see breakout in either direction. Also, there's still has one gap left at 429 1/4 that shouldn't be ignored. Hedgers have their own decisions to make based on their cost basis and yields accordingly which I keep mentioning for obvious reasons.The bean complex settled higher but soybeans and oil made new CONTRACT LOWS AND CLOSES on Monday both acting very bearish overall. At least meal has been consolidating over the last two weeks while holding 310 (beginning of support).  Oil just looks straight down. BUY SIGNAL FOR ROUGH RICE. SELL SIGNALS FOR MIINEAPOLIS, KANSAS CITY AND CHICAGO WHEAT ALONG WITH OATS. SOYBEANS, SOYMEAL AND SOYOIL. For additional charts, quotes, news, commentary & more, sign up for a FREE 30 -day trial to markethead.com.

 


Outside Markets are Dominating Grain Trade

Posted on 8/25/2015 4:31:36 PM by: Ted Seifried, VP, Ag Hedging @ Zaner. 312-277-0113.

It has been a wild ride in many markets so far this week.  The equities markets in particular have had a range in the last two day closer to a range we would expect to see in a years worth of trade.  The grains markets have been under the influence of outside markets as big money seems to be playing a tug of war.  What should we expect next?

The Dow index futures were sharply lower going into the Monday day session and got even heavier as New York markets opened.  At one point the Dow index futures were down well over 1000 points.  At the same time grains markets were under significant pressure as well with soybeans down over 30 and corn and wheat both down over 10.  As the day wore on however the sock indices were able to make impressive comebacks and trim some of the losses.  Soybeans were able to do much of the same while still ending down on the day, corn and wheat however found strength from a sharply lower US$ and ended higher.

On Tuesday the sock indices attempted a heroic comeback that many of the media outlets were dubbing "The biggest rally of 2015" only to end the day at or near lows.  I take issue with calling the early bounce on Tuesday the biggest rally of 2015 because of context but either way it was short lived.  The bounce in the US$ however did hold some of its strength.  In the mean time soybeans attempted to rally along with the stocks while corn and wheat were under pressure from the higher US$.

What has gotten a little lost in the mix here was crop conditions remaining unchanged when the market was looking for slight declines and a 200,000 MT sale of soybeans to unknown.  Crop conditions holding steady is slightly bearish for corn and soybeans as this is the time of year when we would usually be looking for declines.  The soybean sale was nice to see however after a big drop Monday morning we could have hoped to see more.  Thursday's export sales report should be interesting.

Going forward outside markets may continue to have a profound effect on grains markets if they continue to take wild swings.  Large speculators are very flighty right now choosing to move in and out of markets as their risk appetites change on what seems to be a momentary basis.  Based on what we have seen so far this week however, it seems that the corn and wheat are looking to trade inversely to the big moves in the US$ while soybeans are more closely following the stock market.  It will be interesting to see how things trade in the next few days, but it stocks giving up their "turn around Tuesday bounce" may not be a good sign for the equities markets.  At some point, when things settle down, markets may get back to trading more traditional fundamentals. 

Please give us a call if you would like more info on the strategies we are using or if you would like to set up an account to put a plan in action.  Ted Seifried - (312) 277-0113.  Also, feel free to give me a call or shoot me an email if you would like to talk about your marketing plan, the markets, weather, or just to visit.  Follow me on twitter @thetedspread if you like. 

Dec Corn Daily chart:

 

Nov Soybeans Daily chart:

 

Dec Wheat Daily chart:

 

Producers looking to hedge all or a portion of their production may be rather interested in some of the options / options-futures strategies that I am currently using.

In my mind there has to be a balance. Neither technical nor fundamental analysis alone is enough to be consistent. Please give me a call for a trade recommendation, and we can put together a trade strategy tailored to your needs. Be safe!

Ted Seifried (312) 277-0113 or tseifried@zaner.com

Additional charts, studies, and more of my commentary can be found at: http://markethead.com/2.0/free_trial.asp?ap=tseifrie


OPTIONS PLAY: Falling Stock Indices and The Grains

Posted on 8/22/2015 8:31:56 AM by: Matt McKinney, Market Strategist @ Zaner. 312-277-0115.

Direct-312-277-0115, http://www.mmckinneyfutures.com/

TRADING COMMODITY FUTURES AND OPTIONS INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS AND MAY NOT BE SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER WHETHER TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR CIRCUMSTANCES, KNOWLEDGE AND FINANCIAL RESOURCES.

 

OPTIONS PLAY: Falling Stock Indices and The Grains

How will the Stock Indices like the E-mini S&P (ES), Mini-Dow (YM), and Mini Nasdaq (NQ) impact the grains in the coming days and weeks?

Fundamentally, I believe the global equity market collapse as well as the Stock Index Futures here in the U.S. making new lows for the move will have a tremendous impact on the grains in short to mid term. What I believe will happen is the theory of margin calls kicking in on the "Big Money", like the Funds and Institutions. You see, I tend to think that these type of "Big Money" traders buy a lot of stock on margin from their respective brokerages and banks. Why? Because they can. Yeah that's right everyone is suspect to margin calls in this industry.

Here's how this could play out in the coming days and weeks. If we see equities globally and here in the U.S. continue to sell off eventually banks and brokerages will make margin calls to the "Big Money" traders like  Institutions and Hedge Funds then they will be forced to sell other assets and derivatives to meet these margin calls. That means, theoretically, they sell grains, metals, softs, meats and more to meet their margin calls in the falling Indices. Then we see the "risk off" trade on steroids and the only attractive safe haven plays are the U.S. Treasury futures and the USD Index futures. That's my take, although I do have some serious long-term support on the E-mini S&P monthly chart which pretty much mirrors the YM and NQ chart and that could ruin my prediction.

 Technically, I have added my favorite technical indicators to the charts below. I have coined them the "10/20/50/BB Trend Finder". They are the 10 (red line), 20 (green line), and the 50 (blue line) day Simple Moving Averages or SMA's. I have also added Bollinger Bands or BB's (light blue shaded area) and Candlesticks (the red and green bars with the candle stick wicks, and on this daily chart each bar represents one day of trading). These few technical indicators can tell me many, many different characteristics about the market at a quick glance so I have them saved on my charts in MARKETHEAD, so they can populate on any chart I choose at the click of a mouse.

These indicators on the daily Soybean chart below tell me that the beans are in a PRINCIPAL downward trend. This occurs when the 10 day SMA (red line) crosses down and under the 20 day SMA (green line) as both indicators point lower on sharp angles and the market trades below the 10 day SMA. A PRINCIPAL trend down is the strongest form of a downward trend that my "10/20/50/BB Trend-Finder" can show me. This is the case right now in the November Soybeans, as you can see on the chart below.

I figured this out by putting my "10/20/50/BB Trend Finder" on the daily charts and applying these indicators to the charts at the click of a mouse which I found at: http://www.markethead.com/2.0/free_trial.asp?ap=mmckinne , which is a web application that we have developed for our clients called MARKETHEAD where I get about 70-80% of all my research from. That means I get both technical and fundamental research from this web app and I am a veteran series 3 Broker of 15 years. So if I'm using it then maybe my readers should check it out. Yes? 

 

DAILY SOYBEAN CHART

Technically, on the daily December Corn chart below my "10/20/50/BB Trend-Finder" strategy is showing that the market is in a sideways trend.  I know this because the 10 day SMA, 20 day SMA, and the 50 day SMA are all pointing sideways and the market is trading right on the 10 and the 20 SMA's.

DAILY CORN CHART

 

OPTION PLAY:

For exact details on strategies, months, expiration dates, strike prices, and number of positions feel free to contact me at 312-277-0115 or mmckinney@zaner.com .

It is also important to note that I am not married to a market, but to trends. I believe that we are on the verge of lots of upcoming trends. So get in touch with me and I'll show you what could be right around the corner in terms of trending markets and how to trade them. There could be upcoming trends in the energies, indices, financials, precious metals, softs and more.

 

 

FREE QUOTE- "When you are good at something, you'll tell everyone. When you're great at something, they'll tell you." - Walter Payton

 

 

 

FUTURES, OPTIONS AND FOREX TRADING IS SPECULATIVE IN NATURE AND INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS. THESE RECOMMENDATIONS ARE A SOLICITATION FOR ENTERING INTO DERIVATIVES TRANSACTIONS. ALL KNOWN NEWS AND EVENTS HAVE ALREADY BEEN FACTORED INTO THE PRICE OF THE UNDERLYING DERIVATIVES DISCUSSED. FROM TIME TO TIME PERSONS AFFILIATED WITH ZANER, OR ITS ASSOCIATED COMPANIES, MAY HAVE POSITIONS IN RECOMMENDED AND OTHER DERIVATIVES.

 

FOR CUSTOMERS TRADING OPTIONS, THESE FUTURES CHARTS ARE PRESENTED FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY. THEY ARE INTENDED TO SHOW HOW INVESTING IN OPTIONS CAN DEPEND ON THE UNDERDLYING FUTURES PRICES; SPECIFICALLY, WHETHER OR NOT AN OPTION PURCHASER IS BUYING AN IN-THE-MONEY, AT-THE-MONEY, OR OUT-OF-THE MONEY OPTION. FURTHERMORE, THE PURCHASER WILL BE ABLE TO DETERMINE WHETHER OR NOT TO EXERCISE HIS RIGHT ON AN OPTION DEPENDING ON HOW THE OPTION'S STICKE PRICE COMPARES TO THE UNDERLYING FUTURE'S PRICE. THE FUTURES CHARTS ARE NOT INTENDED TO IMPLY THAT OPTION PRICES MOVE IN TANDEM WITH FUTURES PRICES. IN FACT OPTIONS PRICES MAY ONLY MOVE A LITTLE.

 

THE LIMITED RISK CHARACTERISTIC OF OPTIONS REFERS TO LONG OPTIONS ONLY AND REFERS TO THE AMOUNT OF THE LOSS, WHICH IS DEFINED AS THE PREMIUM PAID ON THE OPTION(S) PLUS FEES.


Older posts

Recent Posts

Other Markets

Digg!