USDA Crop Report

News & commentary on the USDA Crop Report and Grain Futures markets including wheat, soybeans, corn & more

USDA Crop Report is a blog dedicated to bringing updates, news and commentary on the USDA Crop Report and the grain futures markets including wheat, corn, soybeans and more.

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08/01 beans sell signal

Posted on 8/1/2014 12:51:02 PM by: Larry Baer, Market Strategist @ Zaner. 312-277-0112.

Call me for trade

 

 


Is Corn Setting up for a Harvest Rally?

Posted on 7/31/2014 1:26:37 PM by: Ted Seifried, VP, Ag Hedging @ Zaner. 312-277-0113.

Corn has been under significant pressure in the last three months as near ideal weather has fueled thoughts of a record yield and possibly a record crop.  Since May, corn has fallen over $1.50 cents from highs.  However, with many analysts now throwing around super sized yield estimates is there a chance we are overshooting the mark?
 
To date, this growing season has been near ideal for corn.  Aside for some isolated flooded out acres and hail damage corn has enjoyed near green house type weather.  We have seen rain when we have needed rain and there has been a good mix of mild and warm temps.  Currently the corn crop is rated by the USDA at 75% good to excellent which makes this one of the best rated crops on record at this time of year (tied for 4th best ratings since 1990).  While there is still time to have a weather issue or frost damage it is safe to say we are looking at a pretty good if not great corn crop.
 
At this point there is little question that this corn crop will be big, but the question is really how big.  With the lowest planted acreage in 4 years the corn crop really needed to be above average this year to keep the balance sheet from getting tighter.  There is also likely some acres that will not get harvested either because they never really got planted due to wet conditions or because they got flooded out or hailed out.  So we really needed a record corn yield this year.  It looks like we will get it, but by how much?
 
The USDA was looking for a record yield for this corn crop from the get go.  Their trendline yield of 165.3 would be a new record by .6 bushels an acre.  Now, some analysts are talking about a national average corn yield over 170 bushels an acre with some as high as 174-176.  I can tell you from doing the math that it might be very difficult this year to come up with a national average yield over 170 bushels an acre.  While we do agree that the USDA's 165.3 seems a little low, it is difficult to justify an additional 10 bushels an acre.  Every state by state model we run puts us in a range of 167.8 to 170.3 with the higher end requiring an almost perfect finish to the growing season.  The difference in production between a 170 or a 174 national average yield equates to about 360 million bushels which is not exactly small change.
 
So, with the market currently factoring in somewhere between a 172 and 176 bushel and acre national corn yield could it be the case that we are setting up for disappointment when we get out into field to harvest?  Many times things can seem better then they are and this year may be one of those times.  When combines roll we very well may find that this corn crop is excellent and a new record national average yield.  But, it may not be quite as big as some of the numbers being thrown around the market now.  This could mean that corn prices may hit a low sometime in the next month and prices may rally though harvest.  This usually only happens when the crop is not as good as expected.  It is hard to say that we could be disappointed with a record national average yield this year, but at this point expectations may be getting unrealistic.
 
Feel free to give me a call or shoot me an email if you would like to talk about your marketing plan, the markets, weather, or just to visit.   
 
December Corn Daily chart:

November Soybeans Daily chart:

December Wheat Daily chart:

All this means that speculators should be looking for opportunities and producers need to look to lock up some prices. Give me a call for some ideas. In particular, producers looking to hedge all or a portion of their production may be rather interested in some of the options / options-futures strategies that I am currently using.

In my mind there has to be a balance. Neither technical nor fundamental analysis alone is enough to be consistent. Please give me a call for a trade recommendation, and we can put together a trade strategy tailored to your needs. Be safe!

Ted Seifried (312) 277-0113 or tseifried@zaner.com

Additional charts, studies, and more of my commentary can be found at: http://markethead.com/2.0/free_trial.asp?ap=tseifrie


CONTRACT LOW CLOSE FOR CORN

Posted on 7/31/2014 1:10:30 PM by: Rick Alexander, VP, Trading @ Zaner. 312-277-0107.

YOUR HEAD IN THE SAND. IN MY OPINION WE HAVE A VERY GOOD HEDGING DEPARTMENT HEADED BY TED SEIFRIED. WHY NOT TALK TO HIM OR ANY OF OUR OTHER HEDGING BROKERS. NO ONE WILL PRESSURE YOU AND WHAT HAVE YOU GOT TO LOSE? I'VE BEEN A LICENSED FUTURES BROKER FOR 41 YEARS AND TRUST NO ONE MORE THAN TED AND HIS GROUP

Higher closes for oats, Minneapolis, Kansas City and Chicago Wheat along with soybeans, soybean meal and soybean oil while lower for corn rough rice but all were close to either side of unchanged.. Minneapolis, KC and Chicago continue to look very bearish overall but the decline has slowed down lately with a pickup in exports.With more than three quarters of the wheat crop harvested, good supplies worldwide should limit the strength of any rallies at this time. The nearest resistance areas for all three begin just overhead with more around 640, 650 and 575 respectively. I continue to expect the wheat complex to fall further than their present areas but at a slower rate. The December Minneapolis/ KC spreads settled lower again making their worst close since July 3rd barely hanging on to a critical consolidation pattern with a 12 3/4 close. Keep an eye on -4 cents and -13 settlements for at least a short term direction in the Dec. contract. I'm still hoping for a retracement back to at least a -20 to start putting on positions and there is good support below -15 also. Then again, if I see a close over 'even money' I will then make adjustments to my entry approach. CALL ME FOR DETAILS!  Oats settled slightly higher with good support below 332 but also has been basically range bound between 320 and 350 since the middle of March on the weekly chart. Rice continues to look weak overall moving down in an orderly fashion since the beginning of May. Its nearest resistance is still above 1340 with little support below but I'm keeping a close eye on 1332.5.. New crop corn made a new CONTRACT LOW CLOSE obviously bearish overall hasn't rallied much lately while having decent exports. Strong soybean demand recently has led to some strong sessions but today was just quiet for the entire grain complex. You can also see below that the corn has been holding the same area over the last eight trading sessions. Also, don't forget that the cattle placements were exceedingly down and around 75% of corn goes into feed down from 85% before ethanol was thrust upon us. Also, the cattle herds are at 50-60 year lows not to mention what the hog virus did to the hog population. Our hedge department feels the pickup in exports could be the result of hedging against the potential of hot, dry weather that usually takes place in August. The bean complex settled down (mixed for the beans) while the Nov. bean contract has a gap at 1132 1/2 that history says will most likely, but not always, be filled sooner or later. I don't see much support below for the beans and oil but the Dec. meal does have strong looking support from 360 down to 340 and is in a possible W formation. The meal/oil spreads lost for the third time in a row now starting to hurt a possible W formation  with 340 a key price area to keep an eye on. Also, watch 1117 for the beans and 366.6 for the meal. Oil doesn't tell me much except it looks very bearish and is long overdue for some kind of retracement rally. SELL SIGNALS FOR MINEAPOLIS, KANSAS CITY AND CHICAGO WHEAT ALONG WITH CORN, ROUGH RICE SOYBEANS, SOYBEAN MEAL AND SOYBEAN OIL. CALL FOR DETAILS.  For additional charts, quotes, news, commentary & more sign-up for a FREE 30-day trial to Market head.Com

 

 

  

  

  

 

 

 

 

 

 


CONTRACT LOW CLOSE FOR CORN

Posted on 7/31/2014 1:10:23 PM by: Rick Alexander, VP, Trading @ Zaner. 312-277-0107.

YOUR HEAD IN THE SAND. IN MY OPINION WE HAVE A VERY GOOD HEDGING DEPARTMENT HEADED BY TED SEIFRIED. WHY NOT TALK TO HIM OR ANY OF OUR OTHER HEDGING BROKERS. NO ONE WILL PRESSURE YOU AND WHAT HAVE YOU GOT TO LOSE? I'VE BEEN A LICENSED FUTURES BROKER FOR 41 YEARS AND TRUST NO ONE MORE THAN TED AND HIS GROUP

Higher closes for oats, Minneapolis, Kansas City and Chicago Wheat along with soybeans, soybean meal and soybean oil while lower for corn rough rice but all were close to either side of unchanged.. Minneapolis, KC and Chicago continue to look very bearish overall but the decline has slowed down lately with a pickup in exports.With more than three quarters of the wheat crop harvested, good supplies worldwide should limit the strength of any rallies at this time. The nearest resistance areas for all three begin just overhead with more around 640, 650 and 575 respectively. I continue to expect the wheat complex to fall further than their present areas but at a slower rate. The December Minneapolis/ KC spreads settled lower again making their worst close since July 3rd barely hanging on to a critical consolidation pattern with a 12 3/4 close. Keep an eye on -4 cents and -13 settlements for at least a short term direction in the Dec. contract. I'm still hoping for a retracement back to at least a -20 to start putting on positions and there is good support below -15 also. Then again, if I see a close over 'even money' I will then make adjustments to my entry approach. CALL ME FOR DETAILS!  Oats settled slightly higher with good support below 332 but also has been basically range bound between 320 and 350 since the middle of March on the weekly chart. Rice continues to look weak overall moving down in an orderly fashion since the beginning of May. Its nearest resistance is still above 1340 with little support below but I'm keeping a close eye on 1332.5.. New crop corn made a new CONTRACT LOW CLOSE obviously bearish overall hasn't rallied much lately while having decent exports. Strong soybean demand recently has led to some strong sessions but today was just quiet for the entire grain complex. You can also see below that the corn has been holding the same area over the last eight trading sessions. Also, don't forget that the cattle placements were exceedingly down and around 75% of corn goes into feed down from 85% before ethanol was thrust upon us. Also, the cattle herds are at 50-60 year lows not to mention what the hog virus did to the hog population. Our hedge department feels the pickup in exports could be the result of hedging against the potential of hot, dry weather that usually takes place in August. The bean complex settled down (mixed for the beans) while the Nov. bean contract has a gap at 1132 1/2 that history says will most likely, but not always, be filled sooner or later. I don't see much support below for the beans and oil but the Dec. meal does have strong looking support from 360 down to 340 and is in a possible W formation. The meal/oil spreads lost for the third time in a row now starting to hurt a possible W formation  with 340 a key price area to keep an eye on. Also, watch 1117 for the beans and 366.6 for the meal. Oil doesn't tell me much except it looks very bearish and is long overdue for some kind of retracement rally. SELL SIGNALS FOR MINEAPOLIS, KANSAS CITY AND CHICAGO WHEAT ALONG WITH CORN, ROUGH RICE SOYBEANS, SOYBEAN MEAL AND SOYBEAN OIL. CALL FOR DETAILS.  For additional charts, quotes, news, commentary & more sign-up for a FREE 30-day trial to Market head.Com

 

 

  

  

  

 

 

 

 

 

 


Look at those Grain Exports!

Posted on 7/31/2014 12:47:41 PM by: Ted Seifried, VP, Ag Hedging @ Zaner. 312-277-0113.

For almost two weeks now we have been seeing export sales announcements coming through almost every morning.  However, this grain export business has not done much to support markets so far but it could be a positive sign for things to come.  The question now is - will this increase in export business continue or was this just a short term deal?
 
For the last two weeks it has seemed like every morning it was not a question of if but a question of when I would get an email from the USDA FAS announcing new export sales.  Global buyer buyers have been buying corn and especially soybeans after the recent, sharp drop in prices.  This came to a head on this weeks export sales report which confirmed very strong sales of corn and soybeans.  Corn sales of almost 45 million bushels came in almost double the high end of trade guesses and soybean sales of over 90 million bushels were almost twice the market expectations as well.  This strong export sales business is a bright spot in an otherwise dreary market climate lately.
 
The question now is whether this strong up tick in export sales will continue or if this was just a flash in the pan.  First of all, prices may need to stay low to continue to encourage sales.  Secondly, there is the possibility that global buyers are looking at the recent break in prices as an opportunity to make purchases on a percentage of their needs before key August weather just in case there were a problem.  Some of these purchases may be a weather hedge, if you will, for the remainder of the growing season.  So, it will be very interesting to see what happens in the next few weeks.
 
At this point we are ahead of the export sales pace from last year at this time.  If this pace keeps up the USDA could be too low on their current export forecast.  And, if prices do continue to go lower exports could get even stronger.  The bottom line is that it is positive to see global grain buyers step up to the plate at current prices rather then wait for the market to continue to come down.
 
For now weather will likely continue to be the key market mover.  As many analysts are now throwing around super sized yield forecasts the markets focus is squarely on production and how big crops could be.  In my experience things are rarely as good as they seem and almost never as bad as they seem. 
 
Feel free to give me a call or shoot me an email if you would like to talk about your marketing plan, the markets, weather, or just to visit.   
 
December Corn Daily chart:

November Soybeans Daily chart:

December Wheat Daily chart:

All this means that speculators should be looking for opportunities and producers need to look to lock up some prices. Give me a call for some ideas. In particular, producers looking to hedge all or a portion of their production may be rather interested in some of the options / options-futures strategies that I am currently using.

In my mind there has to be a balance. Neither technical nor fundamental analysis alone is enough to be consistent. Please give me a call for a trade recommendation, and we can put together a trade strategy tailored to your needs. Be safe!

Ted Seifried (312) 277-0113 or tseifried@zaner.com

Additional charts, studies, and more of my commentary can be found at: http://markethead.com/2.0/free_trial.asp?ap=tseifrie


EXPORT SALES

Posted on 7/31/2014 7:42:01 AM by: Rick Alexander, VP, Trading @ Zaner. 312-277-0107.

YOUR HEAD IN THE SAND. IN MY OPINION WE HAVE A VERY GOOD HEDGING DEPARTMENT HEADED BY TED SEIFRIED. WHY NOT TALK TO HIM OR ANY OF OUR OTHER HEDGING BROKERS. NO ONE WILL PRESSURE YOU AND WHAT HAVE YOU GOT TO LOSE? I'VE BEEN A LICENSED FUTURES BROKER FOR 41 YEARS AND TRUST NO ONE MORE THAN TED AND HIS GROUP

Higher closes for corn  Minneapolis, Kansas City and Chicago Wheat along with corn while lower for rough rice  oats, soybeans, soybean meal and soybean oil but no real changes that I can see technically. Minneapolis (down 19 out of its last 26 sessions) and KC (down 20 out of 28) and Chicago continue to look very bearish overall but the decline has slowed down lately with a pickup in exports.With more than three quarters of the wheat crop harvested, good supplies worldwide should limit the strength of rallies at this time. The nearest resistance areas for all three begin just overhead with more around 640, 650 and 575 respectively. I continue to expect the wheat complex to fall further than their present areas but at a slower rate. The December Minneapolis/ KC spreads settled lower while remaining in a critical consolidation pattern that could go either way. Keep an eye on -4 cents and -13 settlements for at least a short term direction in the Dec. contract even though it has already broken out to the upside on July 7th. I'm still hoping for a retracement back to at least a -20 to start putting on positions and there is good support below -15 also. Then again, if I see a close over 'even money' I will then make adjustments to my entry approach. CALL ME FOR DETAILS!  Oats settled down with good support below 332 but also has been basically range bound between 320 and 350 since the middle of March on the weekly chart. Rice continues to look weak overall moving down in an orderly fashion since the beginning of May. Its nearest resistance is still above 1340 with little support below but I'm keeping a close eye on 1332.5.. New crop corn settled higher while it remains obviously bearish overall, there is room for some kind of retracement rallied induced by better corn exports  and strong soybean demand recently. You can see below the corn has been holding the same area over the last eight trading sessions. Also, don't forget that the cattle placements were exceedingly down and around 75% of corn goes into feed down from 85% before ethanol was thrust upon us. Also, the cattle herds are at 50-60 year lows not to mention what the hog virus did to the hog population. Our hedge department feels the pickup in exports could be the result of hedging against the potential of hot, dry weather that usually takes place in August. The bean complex settled down while the Nov. bean contract has a gap at 1132 1/2 that history says will most likely, but not always, be filled sooner or later. I don't see much support below for the beans and oil but the Dec. meal does have strong looking support from 360 down to 340 and is in a possible W formation. Meal/oil spreads area also in a possible W formation but now being threatened with 330 a key price area to keep an eye on. Also, watch 1117 for the beans and 366.6 for the meal. The oil doesn't tell me much except it looks very bearish and it long overdue to some kind of retracement rally. SELL SIGNALS FOR MINEAPOLIS, KANSAS CITY AND CHICAGO WHEAT ALONG WITH CORN, ROUGH RICE SOYBEANS, SOYBEAN MEAL AND SOYBEAN OIL. CALL FOR DETAILS.  For additional charts, quotes, news, commentary & more sign-up for a FREE 30-day trial to Market head.Com

 

 

  

  

 

 

 

 

 


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