USDA Crop Report

News & commentary on the USDA Crop Report and Grain Futures markets including wheat, soybeans, corn & more

MANY AREAS IN BRAZIL, ARGENTINA AND AUSTRALIA ARE IN NEED OF RAIN.

Posted on 9/18/2019 7:05:25 AM by: Rick Alexander, VP, Trading @ Zaner. 312-277-0107.



Higher closes for oats and rough rice while lower for Minneapolis, Kansas City and Chicago wheat along with soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil and corn. TARIFFS AND THE DOLLAR ARE ALWAYS AN ISSUE LATELY BUT NOW THE FOCUS IS ON WEATHER ESPECIALLY WITH DRY AREAS IN BRAZIL, THOUGH THE SOUTHERN PART IS OKAY, ARGENTINA DRY IN THE WHEAT GROWING AREAS AND AUSTRALIA DROUGHT LIKE CONDITIONS IN WALES AND QUEENLAND.  The wheat complex has been retracing higher since September 3rd but now faces resistance areas. KC, though, is forming a possible bottom in my opinion. Otherwise, this complex remains bearish overall. with Minneapolis first needing a close above 550, KC 410 and Chicago 500 at this time. Oats appear to be in a BULL PENNANT but also in a strong looking resistance area. Strong support remains below 275 down to around 260 also. Rough rice has been retracing higher since the end of July culminating in its HIGHEST HIGH AND CLOSE since August 22nd causing me to remove my sell signal and stand aside for now. Corn continues to look bearish overall but I feel that adding shorts now is not worth the risk with a gap still at 392 3/4 and most of the bearish news already being accounted for. Beside the action has been choppy over the last month which often happens at tops and bottoms. However, I keep focusing on that gap which, as you know, generally fill around 90 % of the time in the grain complex. CALL ME IF YOU WANT A STRATEGY FOR POSSIBLY TAKING ADVANTAGE OF THIS SITUATION. Soybeans gave me a BUY SIGNAL on Sept. 12th while now in a strong looking resistance area. Personally I would stand aside at this time. The distance between major support and resistance is too close (30 cents) for me. Meal continues trade steadily lower overall but has been consolidating since the beginning of August while the fundamental news for the been complex has leaned toward being bullish lately. Oil has a GAP AT 2902 which in not far away at this time while reaching its highest high since last December 19th giving me a BUY SIGNAL Major support lingers around 2900. BUY SIGNALS FOR OATS AND SOYBEANS. SELL SIGNALS FOR MINNEAPOLIS, KANSAS CITY AND CHICAGO WHEAT ALONG WITH CORN AND SOYBEAN MEAL. For additional charts, quotes, news, commentary & more, sign up for a FREE 30 day trial to markethead.com.


MANY AREAS IN BRAZIL, ARGENTINA AND AUSTRALIA ARE IN NEED OF RAIN.

Posted on 9/18/2019 7:05:19 AM by: Rick Alexander, VP, Trading @ Zaner. 312-277-0107.



Higher closes for oats and rough rice while lower for Minneapolis, Kansas City and Chicago wheat along with soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil and corn. TARIFFS AND THE DOLLAR ARE ALWAYS AN ISSUE LATELY BUT NOW THE FOCUS IS ON WEATHER ESPECIALLY WITH DRY AREAS IN BRAZIL, THOUGH THE SOUTHERN PART IS OKAY, ARGENTINA DRY IN THE WHEAT GROWING AREAS AND AUSTRALIA DROUGHT LIKE CONDITIONS IN WALES AND QUEENLAND.  The wheat complex has been retracing higher since September 3rd but now faces resistance areas. KC, though, is forming a possible bottom in my opinion. Otherwise, this complex remains bearish overall. with Minneapolis first needing a close above 550, KC 410 and Chicago 500 at this time. Oats appear to be in a BULL PENNANT but also in a strong looking resistance area. Strong support remains below 275 down to around 260 also. Rough rice has been retracing higher since the end of July culminating in its HIGHEST HIGH AND CLOSE since August 22nd causing me to remove my sell signal and stand aside for now. Corn continues to look bearish overall but I feel that adding shorts now is not worth the risk with a gap still at 392 3/4 and most of the bearish news already being accounted for. Beside the action has been choppy over the last month which often happens at tops and bottoms. However, I keep focusing on that gap which, as you know, generally fill around 90 % of the time in the grain complex. CALL ME IF YOU WANT A STRATEGY FOR POSSIBLY TAKING ADVANTAGE OF THIS SITUATION. Soybeans gave me a BUY SIGNAL on Sept. 12th while now in a strong looking resistance area. Personally I would stand aside at this time. The distance between major support and resistance is too close (30 cents) for me. Meal continues trade steadily lower overall but has been consolidating since the beginning of August while the fundamental news for the been complex has leaned toward being bullish lately. Oil has a GAP AT 2902 which in not far away at this time while reaching its highest high since last December 19th giving me a BUY SIGNAL Major support lingers around 2900. BUY SIGNALS FOR OATS AND SOYBEANS. SELL SIGNALS FOR MINNEAPOLIS, KANSAS CITY AND CHICAGO WHEAT ALONG WITH CORN AND SOYBEAN MEAL. For additional charts, quotes, news, commentary & more, sign up for a FREE 30 day trial to markethead.com.


Posted on 9/17/2019 1:23:18 PM by: Rick Alexander, VP, Trading @ Zaner. 312-277-0107.

 


Posted on 9/16/2019 12:59:42 PM by: Rick Alexander, VP, Trading @ Zaner. 312-277-0107.

 


Posted on 9/16/2019 5:47:15 AM by: Rick Alexander, VP, Trading @ Zaner. 312-277-0107.

 


Posted on 9/12/2019 1:34:49 PM by: Rick Alexander, VP, Trading @ Zaner. 312-277-0107.

 


Posted on 9/11/2019 1:30:53 PM by: Rick Alexander, VP, Trading @ Zaner. 312-277-0107.

 


WASDE REPORT THURSDAY (9/12/19) CHICAGO WHEAT BROKE LOWER HIGH AND LOW PATTERN SINCE END OF MAY

Posted on 9/11/2019 7:32:54 AM by: Rick Alexander, VP, Trading @ Zaner. 312-277-0107.



Higher closes Minneapolis, Kansas City and Chicago wheat along with soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, oats, rough rice and corn. THE WASDE REPORT ON THURSDAY WILL BE CLOSELY WATCHED SINCE ALMOST 10% OF THE SOYBEAN CROP HASN'T SET PODS YET AND CHINA'S CONTINUING HOG PROBLEM. AUSTRALIA'S LOWER WHEAT PRODUCTION FORECAST SHOULD HELP THE WHEAT COMPLEX ALSO. THE CORN FORECAST, HOWEVER, IS MORE IN LINE WITH ESTIMATES INCLUDING AN INCREASE IN BRAZIL'S CORN FORECAST.  Minneapolis and KC made new CONTRACT LOWS AND CLOSES on Sept. 3rd continuing their downward slide but hoping for higher prices with Australia lowering its production forecasts. The former has resistance around 515 while the latter is in their's. Chicago had its worst low since May also on Sept. 3rd but now had its best high and close since Aug 12th while taking out 481 1/4. THIS IS IMPORTANT BECAUSE, FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE THE END OF JUNE, CHICAGO WHEAT HAS BROKEN ITS LOWER HIGH AND LOW PATTERN SETTING UP A POSSIBLE BOTTOMING FORMATION!  Oats had been in a trading range (276 3/4 - 262) since July 18th but, as you can see, since my report ends on Tuesday's close but is being written Wednesday morning, the chart below has included breaking out with a high of 282 1/2 so far at the time of this report being written.. Rough rice has been consolidating over the last seven trading days but is now forming a possible bottom causing me to remove my sell signal and stand aside. Corn continues to fall  making a new CONTRACT LOW AND CLOSE on Monday. However, a gap remains above at 392 3/4 giving me a trade recommendation that should have a better chance of working especially if corn keeps falling. Soybeans had their worst low and close since May on Monday but has been holding fairly well since early August really needing to hold the 850 area. Meal continues to look obviously bearish making its worst low since May 13th on Monday also. At least the meal has been falling in a slow orderly fashion since the beginning of August while oil has been going nowhere since the middle of June except for one blip higher in August. SELL SIGNALS FOR MINNEAPOLIS, KANSAS CITY AND CHICAGO WHEAT ALONG WITH OATS, CORN AND SOYBEAN MEAL. For additional charts, quotes, news, commentary & more, sign up for a FREE 30 day trial to markethead.com.



WASDE REPORT ON THURSDAY (9/12/19) CHICAGO BROKE LOWER HIGH, LOWER LOWER PATTERN SINCE END OF MAY

Posted on 9/11/2019 7:09:02 AM by: Rick Alexander, VP, Trading @ Zaner. 312-277-0107.



Higher closes Minneapolis, Kansas City and Chicago wheat along with soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, oats, rough rice and corn. THE WASDE REPORT ON THURSDAY WILL BE CLOSELY WATCHED SINCE ALMOST 10% OF THE SOYBEAN CROP HASN'T SET PODS YET AND CHINA'S CONTINUING HOG PROBLEM. AUSTRALIA'S LOWER WHEAT PRODUCTION FORECAST SHOULD HELP THE WHEAT COMPLEX ALSO. THE CORN FORECAST, HOWEVER, IS MORE IN LINE WITH ESTIMATES INCLUDING AN INCREASE IN BRAZIL'S CORN FORECAST.  Minneapolis and KC made new CONTRACT LOWS AND CLOSES on Sept. 3rd continuing their downward slide but hoping for higher prices with Australia lowering its production forecasts. The former has resistance around 515 while the latter is in their's. Chicago had its worst low since May also on Sept. 3rd but now had its best high and close since Aug 12th while taking out 481 1/4. THIS IS IMPORTANT BECAUSE, FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE THE END OF JUNE, CHICAGO WHEAT HAS BROKEN ITS LOWER HIGHS AND LOWS PATTERN SETTING UP A POSSIBLE BOTTOMING FORMATION! KC. Oats had been in a trading range (276 3/4 - 262) since July 18th but, as you can see, since my report ends on Tuesday's close but is being written Wednesday morning, the chart below has included breaking out so far with a high of 282 1/2 at the time of this report being written.. Rough rice has been consolidating over the last seven trading days now forming a possible bottom causing me to remove my sell signal and stand aside. Corn continues to fall  making a new CONTRACT LOW AND CLOSE on Monday. However, a gap remains above at 392 3/4 giving me a trade recommendation that should have a better chance of working especially if corn keeps falling. Soybeans had its worst low and close on Monday since May but still has been holding fairly well since early August really needing to hold the 850 area. Meal continues to look obviously bearish making its worst low since May 13th on Monday also. At least the meal has been falling in a slow orderly fashion since the beginning of August while oil has been going nowhere since the middle of June except for one blip higher in August. SELL SIGNALS FOR MINNEAPOLIS, KANSAS CITY AND CHICAGO WHEAT ALONG WITH OATS, CORN AND SOYBEAN MEAL. For additional charts, quotes, news, commentary & more, sign up for a FREE 30 day trial to markethead.com.



WASDE REPORT ON THURSDAY (9/12/19) CHICAGO BROKE LOWER HIGH, LOWER LOWER PATTERN SINCE END OF MAY

Posted on 9/11/2019 7:00:30 AM by: Rick Alexander, VP, Trading @ Zaner. 312-277-0107.



Higher closes Minneapolis, Kansas City and Chicago wheat along with soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, oats, rough rice and corn. THE WASDE REPORT ON THURSDAY WILL BE CLOSELY WATCHED SINCE ALMOST 10% OF THE SOYBEAN CROP HASN'T SET PODS YET AND CHINA'S CONTINUING HOG PROBLEM. AUSTRALIA'S LOWER WHEAT PRODUCTION FORECAST SHOULD HELP THE WHEAT COMPLEX ALSO. THE CORN FORECAST, HOWEVER, IS MORE IN LINE WITH ESTIMATES INCLUDING AN INCREASE IN BRAZIL'S CORN FORECAST.  Minneapolis and KC made new CONTRACT LOWS AND CLOSES on Sept. 3rd continuing their downward slide but hoping for higher prices with Australia lowering its production forecasts. The former has resistance around 515 while the latter is in their's. Chicago had its worst low since May also on Sept. 3rd but now had its best high and close since Aug 12th while taking out 481 1/4. THIS IS IMPORTANT BECAUSE, FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE THE END OF JUNE, CHICAGO WHEAT HAS BROKEN ITS LOWER HIGHS AND LOWS PATTERN SETTING UP A POSSIBLE BOTTOMING FORMATION! KC. Oats had been in a trading range (276 3/4 - 262) since July 18th but, as you can see, since my report ends on Tuesday's close but is being written Wednesday morning, the chart below has included breaking out so far with a high of 282 1/2 at the time of this report being written.. Rough rice has been consolidating over the last seven trading days now forming a possible bottom.days causing me to remove my sell signal and stand aside.Corn continues to fall  making a new CONTRACT LOW AND CLOSE on Monday. However, a gap remains above at 392 3/4 giving me a trade recommendation that should have a better chance of working than most especially if corn keeps falling. Soybeans had its worst low and close on Monday since May but still has been holding fairly well since early August. really needing to hold the 850 area. Meal continues to look obviously bearish making its worst low since May 13th on Monday also. At least the meal has been falling in a slow orderly fashion since the beginning of August while oil has been going nowhere since the middle of June except for one blip higher in August. SELL SIGNALS FOR MINNEAPOLIS, KANSAS CITY AND CHICAGO WHEAT ALONG WITH OATS, CORN AND SOYBEAN MEAL. For additional charts, quotes, news, commentary & more, sign up for a FREE 30 day trial to markethead.com.



Posted on 9/10/2019 1:42:47 PM by: Rick Alexander, VP, Trading @ Zaner. 312-277-0107.

 


Posted on 9/9/2019 2:17:47 PM by: Rick Alexander, VP, Trading @ Zaner. 312-277-0107.

 


Posted on 9/9/2019 5:37:15 AM by: Rick Alexander, VP, Trading @ Zaner. 312-277-0107.

 


Posted on 9/5/2019 1:58:11 PM by: Rick Alexander, VP, Trading @ Zaner. 312-277-0107.

 


Posted on 9/4/2019 2:06:25 PM by: Rick Alexander, VP, Trading @ Zaner. 312-277-0107.

 


Posted on 9/3/2019 2:17:18 PM by: Rick Alexander, VP, Trading @ Zaner. 312-277-0107.

 


Posted on 9/3/2019 5:30:32 AM by: Rick Alexander, VP, Trading @ Zaner. 312-277-0107.

 


Posted on 8/30/2019 5:55:36 AM by: Rick Alexander, VP, Trading @ Zaner. 312-277-0107.

 


Posted on 8/29/2019 5:51:35 AM by: Rick Alexander, VP, Trading @ Zaner. 312-277-0107.

 


SOYBEAN SALES @ 13 YR LOW. CORN SALES @ 14 YR LOW. WEATHER CONDITIONS NOT BAD OVER NEXT WEEK +

Posted on 8/28/2019 6:58:44 AM by: Rick Alexander, VP, Trading @ Zaner. 312-277-0107.



Higher closes Kansas City and Chicago wheat while lower for soybeans, soybean meal and soybean oil along with oats, rough rice and corn. SOYBEAN SALES ARE THE LOWEST IN 13 YEARS AND CORN IN 14 YEARS. THE FARM FUTURES SURVEY SAYS PLANTING FOR BEANS WILL BE UP FOUR MILLION ACRES AND SOYBEANS SEVEN MILLION ACRES. The wheat complex continues to look very bearish with Minneapolis making THE SAME CONTRACT LOW ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY ALONG WITH A CONTRACT LOW CLOSE ON TUESDAY. THEREFORE, THERE IS A FRAGILE DOUBLE BOTTOM IN PLACE FOR NOW. KC has been consolidating over the last couple of weeks which could also possibly be a BEAR TRIANGLE. Chicago has been making lower highs and lows since late July now just above some support. Oats have been in a trading range (276 3/4 - 262) since July 18th while now in a support area. In my opinion most technical formations point to lower prices at this time. Rough rice gave me a SELL SIGNAL on August 19th and should continue lower overall. Taking out 1125 was also a critical bearish sign in my opinion. Corn continues to fall now trading around May's lows. However, a gap remains above at 392 3/4 giving me a trade recommendation that should have a better chance of working than most CALL ME FOR DETAILS!  Corn continues to fall, evidenced by Tuesday's lowest low and close since the middle of May, as the tide has turned from earlier in the year forecasts and now the bean complex seems to have the better chance of rallying according to our HEDGING DEPARTMENT. Soybeans have been trading lower since June 18th and now is in some suppot. I'm standong aside for now but you could make a good case for the beans to continue lower in spite of some potentially bullish fundamental indications out there. CALL ME AND I WILL PUT YOU IN TOUCH WITH OUR HEDGING DEPARTMENT FOR A CLARIFICATION OF WHAT I JUST SAID. Meal continues to look obviously bearish making its worst low since May 13th while oil is in a major looking support area after retracing lower over the last two weeks. If you must take a position in oil do it from the long side. SELL SIGNALS FOR MINNEAPOLIS, KANSAS CITY AND CHICAGO WHEAT ALONG WITH OATS, ROUGH RICE, CORN AND SOYBEAN MEAL. For additional charts, quotes, news, commentary & more, sign up for a FREE 30 day trial to markethead.com.




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